The battle for Cuban-American voters

By Kim Ghattas
BBC News, Miami

John McCain has the backing of many older Cuban exiles in Miami

In the Maximo Gomez domino park, on the corner of 8th Street and 14th Avenue in Miami, time appears to have slowed down to the pace of endless domino games.

Old men shuffle their tiles and play for hours, day after day, a routine that punctuates a life in exile for Cuban immigrants still waiting for change back home.

As they smoke their cigars, they talk of the embargo on Cuba and their plans to vote for Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

There is unanimous support here for the Republican Party, which has long backed the Cuban exile community and its calls for a continued tough line with Havana.

This has been the dominant view for five decades on Calle Ocho, where thousands of Cubans started their life in exile, where Cuban music blares from loudspeakers outside shops and cafes still serve strong coffee Cuban-style, with sweet condensed milk.

Less obsessed

But the street is changing, as is the Cuban-American community.

Joe Garcia on why he presents a serious challenge to the Republican incumbent

It is no longer the bustling hub it once was.

Many Cubans have moved on and moved up, to the wealthy suburbs of Miami.

Their children and grandchildren do not bear the scars of life under Fidel Castro - they are less obsessed with Cuba, and more focused instead on their future in America.

Hispanics from all over Latin America have also converged here, altering the dynamics in the area and - crucially - the voting patterns.

It all adds a great element of surprise in what has for decades been a place of traditional politics.

This election will be the test - it will depend on how energised the vote is for Obama and how energised young voters are Miriam Marquez, Miami Herald editor

"The Republican party that I knew and loved has left me behind, so this year I'm voting for change, I'm voting for Barack Obama," said 60-year-old Carlos Saladrigas.

It is a dramatic change of heart for him.

As he played in his lush garden with his grandchild, along with his daughter-in law and wife, Mr Saladrigas said Cuba remained part of his family's "fibre" and its heritage, even if his children were now as "American as apple pie".

They still dream of going back home one day - on a chair in their living room a cushion is embroidered with the words "El ano proximo en Havana" ("Next year in Havana").

But Mr Saladrigas, who came here when he was 12 with $3 in his pocket, no longer believes that the policy of isolation is the way to make this dream happen - and he says he is not the only one.

"Everywhere you go, in cocktail parties and people you meet, people open up and say this policy hasn't worked," he told me.

"You don't have to be very smart to figure out that after 50 years of trying something that hasn't worked, maybe it's time to try something new."

'One-trick ponies'

And that is why, for the first time in many years, Republican Cuban-Americans are having to fight for their seats in Congress.

Mario Diaz Balart is confident Cubans will back him for a fourth term in office

Mario Diaz Balart, a member of a political dynasty that has dominated Cuban politics in Miami for decades, is being challenged by Joe Garcia, a Cuban-American Democrat.

Mr Diaz Balart's brother, Lincoln, another Republican congressman in Florida, is also fighting for his seat.

Mr Garcia claims the Diaz Balart brothers are "one trick ponies" who are focused on Cuba all the time.

"While Cuba is important and we have to work for the liberty of Cuba, that's not what's going to take care of my daughter's future and this community," Mr Garcia told the BBC.

"I also have to work for jobs, healthcare, the economy, and our relations with Latin America have to be judged on more than just Cuba policy."

The boisterous, curly-haired father-of-one finds himself boosted by a national surge of support for the Democratic Party and Barack Obama.

Barack Obama is gaining support from many voters for his economic policies

He is getting a lot of backing from young voters worried about the economy.

Some polls suggest Mr Garcia is in a dead-heat race with Mario Diaz Balart, something unthinkable just a few years ago.

But a breakdown of the polling figures also underlines that 60% of Cuban-American voters are still likely support the Republican candidate.

"If the election were decided by Cuban-Americans alone, it would be an 80% to 20% race, but this is a diverse community," said Mr Diaz Balart, who seemed unfazed by the competition he faces as he seeks a fourth two-year term in Congress.

In a clear swipe at Mr Obama, he said "some people" were willing to make unilateral concessions to the "terrorist regime in Cuba", asking for nothing in return.

He believes that the majority of the Cuban-American community remains united in its demands for a tough line on Cuba.

Challenged with the idea that the 50-year-long isolation policy had not succeeded, Mr Diaz Balart retorted that it had just not been applied successfully enough, because many other countries do do business with Cuba.

Travel ban

While there is a surge in talk about change and demands for a different approach to Cuba, no one is talking about lifting the embargo outright.

But even people like Francisco Hernandez, former president of the hard-line Cuban-American National Foundation (CANF), say it is time to rethink the policy.

The US has imposed a trade embargo on Cuba for decades

The powerful CANF lobbied for years in Washington for tighter and tighter restrictions.

But Mr Hernandez feels the Bush administration missed an opportunity when Fidel Castro left the stage earlier this year, to be succeeded by his brother Raul.

In 2004, President Bush tightened the travel ban for Cuban-Americans and limited the remittances they can send home. Mr Hernandez wants the next president to lift these restrictions.

"Let the Cuban-Americans be the agents of the change that we want in Cuba," said Mr Hernandez.

Mr Obama has said he would reverse the Bush administration's policies.

Mr McCain has taken a hard line on Cuba during this campaign, although in his 2000 run for the White House, he talked of negotiating with Cuba.

But are Cuban-Americans really yearning for a different approach?

There may be a lot of talk about change, but polls show that older Floridians are still more likely to vote than the younger generation, and they are sticking to their long-held Republican allegiance.

"This election will be the test - it will depend on how energised the vote is for Obama and how energised young voters are," said Miami Herald editor Miriam Marquez.

"Historically, [young people] don't vote in high numbers and when they do, they vote like their parents. But this election will be based on getting out the vote and the younger generation will be the test."

Alexandra Uriarte, a 21-year-old volunteer with the Garcia campaign, says all her friends are getting ready to vote and, unlike their parents, they are voting for Joe Garcia and Mr Obama.

"It has a lot to do with the country we live in, the issues that we're exposed to and how we rationalise what our country is doing for Cuba and the Cuban American community," she said, adding that she and her friends were more concerned about the economy and their job prospects in the US than Cuba.

There is a feeling that whoever wins the US election, the approach to Havana will be reassessed.

But if Little Havana actually turns blue, it will visibly alter the most public face of US policy towards Cuba.