Battle for the working class male

Analysis
By Steve Schifferes
BBC News

Plumber Joe Wurzelbacher has become the centre of an electoral battle

It was no accident that Joe the Plumber figured so prominently in the last presidential debate.

That's because, as the battle for votes in the presidential election has moved into high gear, one of the key demographic groups that seems to be swinging away from the Republicans is white men.

It is just as important for John McCain to hang on to the support of this group as it is for him to win the usually reliably Republican states in the South, such as Virginia and North Carolina.

And Joe Wurzelbacher, the working class plumber from Toledo, Ohio, has become a symbol of this struggle.

Over the past 40 years, women have became the stalwarts of the Democratic Party, while male party identification with the Democrats declined from 60% in 1964 to around 45% by 1984, and was still at the same level in 2004. (On average, 55% of women identified with the Democrats during this period).

John McCain needs to win back working class male voters

"The big story is of men peeling off as Democratic identifiers during the last 30 to 40 years," said political scientist Daron Shaw, of the University of Texas.

But now men are swinging decisively towards Barack Obama, making up a key part of his surge in support over the last month.

According to a Gallup tracking poll, when the two candidates were running neck-to-neck in mid-September, men favoured Mr McCain by 52% to 41%.

In the past month, as Mr Obama has moved ahead in the polls, there has been a 16% swing in his favour among male voters, who now favour him by by 49% to 44% - a change of 16%.

And Mr Obama has also reversed his deficit among working class voters - those without a college education. In September they were supporting Mr McCain by 48% to 41%, and now they favour Mr Obama by 51% to 40% - an 18% swing.

Given the large advantage Mr Obama already has among women, if a swing of this magnitude were to take place in the voting booth, it would make the difference between a close race and a big victory for the Democrats.

The economy

The big swing among men seems to correspond to the growing importance of economic issues to the electorate as a whole.

Traditionally, men are more likely to be concerned with foreign policy issues, while women give relatively more emphasis to "pocketbook issues".

Barack Obama is drawing larger and larger crowds

But as the financial crisis, and the massive government bail-out, has dominated the news agenda, the economy has become more salient, with both men and women rating it as by far the most important issue facing the country.

And as confidence in the economy has plummeted, Mr Obama's poll ratings have risen.

"The Democratic issues are much more salient, so they have a natural advantage," explained Professor Shaw.

Fighting back

For the Republicans, giving Joe the Plumber - who questioned Mr Obama about his tax plans - so much prominence in their discussions of economic policy has had two purposes.

First, the McCain campaign would like to shift the terms of the economic debate from jobs to taxes, where the Republicans traditionally have enjoyed an advantage.

Mr Obama's plan to give tax cuts to 95% of voters is an attempt to neutralise this issue, and it appears to be succeeding with the electorate, who now rate the parties relatively equally on tax.

Secondly, it is an attempt to characterise Mr Obama as too liberal for the average American worker, who wants to hold on to his money, not redistribute it, in order to realise the American dream of getting rich.

Mr McCain's use of the issue does seem to have helped his poll numbers in one respect - more now believe that he understands the problems of average Americans.

Fading American dream

But the deeper problem faced by the McCain campaign is that the American dream has not led to rising incomes for the average worker during the Bush years.

According to Jared Bernstein, of the Economic Policy Institute, real family incomes did not rise for the median household during the economic recovery that began in 2001 - the first time this has happened.

He points to the lack of jobs created during the recovery, and rising inequality of incomes as the key explanations for this trend.

And as the Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman points out, the average wage for a plumber in Ohio in 2007 was $47,930, not $250,000.

The stagnation of incomes during the boom has made many people feel much more vulnerable as the next downturn arrives - and indeed economic confidence is at a record low.

Grand New Party?

There are some within the Republican party who think that, in order to be successful in the future, it needs to re-launch itself as a party of the working class.

The two young Republican authors of an influential book, Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream, argue that under Ronald Reagan the Republicans won white male high-school educated voters by appealing to their real economic interest.

"The Republican Party didn't win working-class votes by stoking the culture war and ignoring everything else; it built a majority because a lot of its economic policies did, in fact, benefit working America as well as the rich," says author Ross Douthat.

The other author, Reihan Salam, says that inequality is now becoming an issue again.

"The delicate consumption compromise that has tamped down economic discontent among working-class voters by driving down the cost of living - we've been living in the era of cheap food, cheap gas, cheap credit, and, of course, cheap Chinese-made goods - has now come to an end," he writes in the current issue of the Atlantic Monthly.

They call for the Republicans to embrace family-friendly measures to directly boost the income of working class families, such as extending earned income tax credits, and they are scathing about the McCain campaign's failure to address these concerns.

"It will not be enough for Republicans just to try and change the conversation to foreign policy," they argue.

In recent weeks, Senator McCain has swung towards a more populist approach to the economy, most notably by proposing a $300bn bail-out of distressed mortgages, which would be bought directly by the government.

But he is still hoping that his themes of character, experience, and patriotism will connect with his core supporters.

The key question is whether it will be enough to win back the male, working class votes that are vital to Republican electoral success.

The Gallup daily tracking polls used in the story compare the week of 8-14 September to the week of 6-12 October. They have a sample size of 6,468 registered voters, with a margin of error of 1%.

---

Are you in the US? Who do you think is winning the battle for the working class male? Send us your views and experiences using the form below:

Name

Your E-mail address

Town & Country

Phone number (optional):

Comments

The BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide.

Terms & Conditions