Looking West in the White House race

By Jonathan Marcus
BBC diplomatic correspondent, Denver

With the US presidential election campaign moving into the final furlong, Ken Summers, a Republican representative in the Colorado State House, was out canvassing support.

Ken Summers says Republican John McCain understands western issues

He was working not just for his own re-election but for the man he is backing for the White House, Senator John McCain.

It was a bright and balmy autumn evening in South Lakewood, a genteel suburb of Denver, and Ken Summers showed no sign of swimming against the political tide.

Quite apart from his easy manner, he has something that is a great plus for a politician: the deep reassuring voice of a pastor - his previous occupation.

"Yes," he acknowledged, "the influx of new voters has changed the political landscape in Colorado."

But, he insisted: "John McCain is himself a Westerner; he understands Western issues like water, land and illegal immigration."

Colorado's electorate, because of an upsurge in Democratic Party support is almost perfectly balanced Pollster Floyd Ciruli

There was no sign that Mr Summers was expecting anything other than a McCain victory.

But all the signs are that the presidential race here in Colorado is going to be close. And that, in itself, is a reflection of a profound process of political change that is affecting not just Colorado, but many other Western States as well.

'Perfectly balanced'

In Colorado itself, some 85% of voters live in a long, urban metropolis extending north and south from Denver along what is known as "the Front Range" - hard up against the foothills of the Rocky Mountains.

The typical western voter now lives in a suburb, not on the open prairie

So forget the images of open prairies and lonely cattle ranches. The typical Western voter now lives in a suburb, commuting to work often in high-tech or post-modern industries.

All those who see the US as simply a land of "gas-guzzlers" will be surprised to hear that in Colorado, the renewable energy sector is the fastest growing industry.

Veteran Colorado pollster and analyst Floyd Ciruli is the man to go to for an explanation of Colorado's changing political dynamics.

"This is extraordinary," he told me. "Colorado has never had this much attention in a presidential election in my life-time."

That is in large part because of the closeness of the national race; and, if things are very close, then Colorado's nine electoral college votes could be crucial.

"Colorado's electorate, because of an upsurge in Democratic Party support is almost perfectly balanced," Mr Ciruli went on.

"Power is held by a group of unaffiliated voters - they are a little less attentive to politics, a little less loyal to a party and more likely to be affected by the headlines."

Collapsing brand

Mr Ciruli's polling has shown this vital swing group moving back and forth and, consequently, the lead has changed several times.

Young people, Hispanics and women will be the key to an Obama victory Pat Waak Colorado Democratic Party

"At the moment, Senator Barack Obama is ahead but that could still change," he said.

The changing political dynamic in the West is due, according to Mr Ciruli, to two main factors.

"The Democrats have positioned themselves well in the Western states, choosing more moderate candidates in tune with key Western issues," he said.

And they have also been able to capitalise on their early adoption of environmental issues, not least renewable energy, which plays well in the West.

The second factor is what Mr Ciruli calls "the collapse of the Republican brand nationally".

The Republicans have traditionally done well in the West. George W Bush carried most of these states in 2000 and 2004.

Both he and Vice-President Dick Cheney are Westerners. But the Republican Party's Western magic seems to have evaporated.

'Phenomenal growth'

Of course, the trend has been developing for some time.

We have made serious inroads in the last five or 10 years - not just in the Pacific Western States but also in the Mountain States as well Gary Hart, former Democratic presidential candidate

Pat Waak, chairwoman of the Colorado Democratic Party, was in an ebullient mood when I met her at a local party headquarters in another Denver suburb.

She told me: "The interior West, leaving out the West Coast, has been undergoing a phenomenal demographic growth in the last 10 years.

"It's coming from the East and West Coasts - predominantly people who are choosing a different lifestyle that is very much connected with the out-of-doors, the open spaces and the Western independent spirit."

In fact, she does not think the polls are giving an accurate picture, arguing that they underestimate Democratic support among the young and newly registered voters - and there are an awful lot of them.

"Young people, Hispanics and women will be the key to an Obama victory," she said.

Of course, the decision of the Democratic Party to hold its convention in Denver - the first time it had done so for 100 years - gave an added boost to the party's "Western strategy".

Changing party?

One of the people who has long argued for the Democrats to "look West" is former senator and one-time presidential hopeful Gary Hart. I went to see him in his office on the campus of the University of Colorado.

Colorado may be witnessing a demographic and political shift

From his window, you could see new high-rises going up on the edge of the city and, away in the distance, the majestic peaks of the Rocky Mountains.

"We have made serious inroads in the last five or 10 years in governorships, state legislatures, and increasingly in congressional delegations, not just in the Pacific Western States but also in the Mountain States as well," he noted.

This Democratic shift, he hoped, would re-shape his party. It would become less obsessed with traditional social issues and the legacy of slavery in the South, he said.

"A new Democratic party - a Western-focused Democratic party - would be the information-age party; it would be the resources and environment party; the climate change party; an open and more libertarian party on social issues and so forth."

So the stakes out here in the West are great indeed.

Not just the presidency but the long-term fate of one of the country's two major parties could rest upon the political changes that are taking place here on the high plains.