Mexico race 'too close to call'

Mr Fox scents victory as he meets supporters

By Peter Greste in Mexico City

The last opinion polls before voting on 2 July in Mexico's presidential elections show the two leading contenders in a statistical dead heat.

Too close to call is the consistent comment from political analysts, watching what has been described as Mexico's most important election for decades.

The two polls published on Friday - one in the Dallas Morning News and the second in Mexico's daily, Milenio - put the two leading presidential candidates in a statistical tie.

The Dallas Morning News had the ruling party's Francisco Labastida with 34% support.

Francisco Labastida: Career politician

The challenger, Vicente Fox of the National Action Party (PAN), had 33% - a gap well within the margin of error of plus or minus 2%.

The Mexican paper had Mr Labastida with a 3% lead, although it did not give a margin of error.

Floating vote

But what is also remarkable is the huge number of voters who have declared themselves undecided.

Recent polls suggest that anywhere between 20% and 38% of the country either do not know or will not tell pollsters what they plan to do on election day.

No-one is sure why, although there is speculation that Mexicans are taking to heart a recent campaign saying their vote is truly secret.

Historian and political analyst Enrique Krause told me that, for the first time in Mexico's modern history, we really do not know who is going to win.

71-year rule

It used to be simple.

The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has been the world's most successful political force - winning every presidential election since it was formed in 1929.

It used to win elections using whatever methods it needed - both legal and illegal.

But now, democratic reforms combined with a new and genuinely independent electoral organisation have given the opposition its best hope ever for breaking that grip.

The campaign has been a suitably brutal clash of political forces - between the immoveable rock of the ruling establishment and the irresistable drive for change.

There are still no reliable clues as to which force will ultimately triumph.