US debate could be turning point

By Adam Brookes
BBC News, St Louis

It could be what Americans call a "game changer" - a single event which transforms the entire presidential race.

The two candidates face very different challenges

The debate will be moderated by the journalist Gwen Ifill of the public broadcasting network PBS.

She has control over the subject matter. She will ask each candidate a question; they will have 90 seconds to reply, and then a two-minute interchange between the candidates may follow. They will stand at lecterns, rather than sit.

It promises to be one of the most important debates ever, coming as it does at a time of great national anxiety, and in a presidential race of historic significance.

The Palin phenomenon

And then, of course, there is Sarah Palin.

The rise of Mrs Palin is an extraordinary political phenomenon - one which says much about the speed at which politics in conducted in contemporary America.

In five weeks she has travelled a great distance - from being virtually unknown nationally as the governor of Alaska, to being the star at the Republican Convention in St Paul, to being the object of intense media scrutiny.

Gaffe-prone candidates Palin's Alaska debating style Preparing for the contest

But her popularity seems already to have peaked and some conservatives are openly wondering if she may have become a liability.

During this time, her appearances have been relatively few. Campaign staff have allowed her to conduct only a handful of interviews. And they went badly.

More than once, under very gentle questioning in front of the cameras, Governor Palin has appeared flummoxed by questions on foreign policy and the national economy.

She has famously said - more than once, it should be noted - that Russia's proximity to Alaska serves as foreign policy experience.

Her supporters say she is the victim of sexism and a vindictive liberal media establishment, and that she is an excellent representative of the Republican Party's base.

"The Obama campaign and other Democrats were quick to attack Palin's experience," the Republican strategist Greg Mueller wrote in the Washington Post.

"In fact, Palin has more executive experience than Obama does... Palin is a terrific contrast to the all-Washington ticket of Obama-Biden, and she is truly an outside-the-Beltway, blue-collar pick."

McCain's gamble

Her detractors argue that she has neither the experience nor the intellectual wherewithal to occupy senior office, let alone to be the vice president.

"Governor Palin has been given a set of talking points by campaign advisers, simple ideological mantras that she repeats and repeats as long as she can," said Fareed Zakaria, a columnist.

He should say as little as possible, absolutely nothing would be best Unnamed journalist on Joe Biden

"But if forced off those rehearsed lines, what she has to say is often quite frankly nonsense."

But this is a televised debate - and the camera loves Sarah Palin. She has a formidable presence, and an extremely expressive voice.

Her persona speaks powerfully to a certain strand of American idealism - a devoted mother, a traditionalist, a conservative with a whiff of the frontier about her.

If Mrs Palin holds her own in Thursday night's debate, John McCain's campaign for the presidency will maintain its momentum.

But such is the public interest in her, and so great was Senator McCain's gamble in choosing this inexperienced candidate, that if she performs poorly she could bring about the implosion of the entire McCain campaign. Her failure will reflect on his judgement.

Less is more

Joseph Biden is the silver-haired senator from Delaware, known to his colleagues as "the happy warrior", such an enthusiast is he for his job and his cause.

He was a safe pick for Barack Obama, an experienced head who could bring foreign policy gravitas to the ticket.

Perhaps, above all, one senses a crisis of confidence in leadership and ideas

But Senator Biden's challenge on Thursday night - according to his supporters - is to understand that, for once in politics, less is more.

"He should say as little as possible, absolutely nothing would be best," said one well-known left-leaning journalist.

The danger for Senator Biden is that he appears "aggressive, or patronising or condescending", says a Democratic congressman.

"He can't beat up on Sarah Palin. It won't work politically and it will alienate those important voters, the women," says the journalist.

Senator Biden is well known for his loquacity and for relishing an argument, and he is no stranger to the well-meant gaffe. So restraint may be a challenge for him.

Rising to the challenge?

The debate takes place against an extraordinary backdrop.

The political atmosphere in America in October 2008 is febrile and confused.

The financial uncertainty which has spread like a stain across the country has hastened a more general erosion of national confidence.

That erosion of confidence derives from many sources: the uncertain outcome and enormous cost of the Iraq war, creeping anxiety over the Afghan war; numerous areas of foreign policy tension from Russia to Iran to North Korea; a crisis in the housing market; the jaw-dropping cost of oil; massive government debt; a shaky dollar.

But perhaps, above all, one senses a crisis of confidence in leadership and ideas.

Some of the fixed ideas of post-Cold War America - the importance of deregulation, the primacy of markets, the sureness of American military superiority - are being challenged.

And, thus far, the Bush administration and Congress have proved to be unable to agree among themselves on how to answer those challenges.

The Republican Party was celebrating a few weeks ago that it had found a new standard-bearer in Sarah Palin.

Here was someone, whooped the delegates at the Minneapolis Republican Convention, who could oversee the birth of a new, young conservatism, who could reenergise the Party.

On Thursday night, perhaps we will find out if she really is that person.

The BBC will be streaming the Biden-Palin debate live on its website from 0100 GMT on 3 October, with live running commentary and further analysis from our correspondents in St Louis and Washington.