Texans' key role in White House race

By Kevin Connolly
BBC News, Washington

John McCain may come out of the next primaries unbeatable

They have taken their time about it, but the candidates and the American people are about to write one of the most important chapters in the story of the White House race of 2008.

It seems strange to recall it now, but there was a time about a month ago when many Texans were irked at the thought that their primaries would be irrelevant this year - you remember how the event we called "Super Tuesday" was going to have both the Republican and Democratic nominations sorted out around a month ago.

But politics is an unpredictable business - and because Super Tuesday was not decisive, Texas has more influence in 2008 than it has had for years.

The Republican race has become a little peculiar in the last few weeks. We know John McCain will be the candidate but his last two rivals, Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee, just won't quit.

Mike Huckabee is still running despite McCain's lead

The votes on 4 March (in Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island as well as Texas) may well put Mr McCain over the 1,191 delegates he needs to be mathematically unbeatable.

Both Mr Paul and Mr Huckabee have a whiff of eccentricity about them, but it seems reasonable to assume that even they will withdraw when Mr McCain finally hits the magic number.

Targeting Obama

In the meantime, he has taken advantage of his nominee-apparent status to start attacking the Democrats, focusing mainly on issues of national security. Interestingly, his main target is Barack Obama - a bit of a clue as to who he thinks he will be running against come the autumn.

Now, because the Democratic race is so finely balanced and has stretched on through so many states, Texans may end up determining who wins and who loses there too.

Can Barack Obama repeat the gains he has made elsewhere?

The Lone Star State is the largest of the electoral prizes left on offer - it will send 228 delegates to the summer convention which will confirm the party's choice of presidential contender.

In practical terms, it seems almost certain that the race between Mr Obama and Hillary Clinton in Texas will once again be very tight.

The gap between them is small, and the Democrats' system of proportional representation in primaries produces tight outcomes, not clear ones. Prepare for another nail-biting evening.

Voting patterns

One curious feature of the campaign this year, by the way, is the manner in which voting patterns among various different ethnic groups are discussed and analysed with brutal clarity.

Americans are becoming less coy in their discussions of how different communities do (and don't) vote, and that has helped make this year's race particularly intriguing.

A Hillary Clinton victory is far from assured

So we know that about 80% of African-Americans who have voted in the primaries have backed Mr Obama and that about two-thirds of Hispanic voters have gone for Mrs Clinton.

In Texas that should work in Mrs Clinton's favour. A third of the population of Texas is of Latino (mainly Mexican) origin and only about 12% is African-American.

But we have learnt in this year of knife-edge finishes not to take anything for granted: the outcome will depend on the turnout in each community and, of course, on how white Democrats vote too - they have often ended up being overlooked.

And there is the question of whether Mr Obama can repeat in Texas the feat he has managed elsewhere, which is to eat into groups which were regarded as Mrs Clinton's own - women and blue-collar men, for example.

Mantle has slipped

Lots of Democrats assured me that the Latino vote was less fickle than that - and a few told me privately that older Latino voters in particular might find it difficult to support a black candidate.

I said in practical terms that the Democratic race in Texas would be close - but you can't simply measure politics in practical terms, of course.

The truth is that the mantle of inevitability that Mrs Clinton once wore has slipped and is now hovering over Mr Obama's shoulders.

Hillary Clinton must win next week, says husband Bill

There is a general consensus that she needs to win both the big 4 March prizes, Texas and Ohio, to stop the Obama bandwagon (he has won the last 11 contests), and that is a very tall order.

Even Mrs Clinton's husband - former president Bill - in one of his least helpful interventions, admitted that he didn't think she could win the nomination if she didn't win both states.

So you can expect Mrs Clinton to come under pressure to withdraw from the race for the sake of party unity if the events of next Tuesday don't go her way - although it is far from certain she would listen.

In the past couple of weeks she has tried scolding Mr Obama over his tactics, praising his eloquence and mocking the way she says he has been given an easy ride by the press - but nothing has worked.

National wave

It is almost as though Mr Obama is riding a wave of sentiment that is impervious to conventional politics.

In the run-up to Texas, a veteran African-American Representative from Georgia, John Lewis (a super-delegate), switched sides and endorsed Mr Obama after originally backing Mrs Clinton.

As he did so, he said simply that something was happening in the country that people like him had failed to predict.

We will find out next week if that national wave is about to sweep through Texas too. If it does, then things will look very dark indeed for Hillary Clinton.