Splits mark Super Tuesday outcome

By Steve Schifferes
BBC News

John McCain did not win a majority in his home state of Arizona

John McCain owes his strong showing in Super Tuesday to splits among the conservative Republican vote, which has been divided among Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

This has allowed Senator McCain, who is strongly backed by moderates and independents, to gain narrow victories in key states.

And Hillary Clinton has won the Democratic vote in most of the big states through her strong showing among Hispanic voters and women.

This more than countered Mr Obama's lead among African-Americans and young voters.

Mr McCain's failure to appeal to key conservative Republican groups within the electorate could still make it more difficult for him to get out the Republican vote in the presidential election

However, the differences in the way delegates are allocated - with a winner-take-all system in Republican states - means that Mr McCain will have a much bigger advantage among delegates than Mrs Clinton, since Democratic delegates are allocated as a proportion of the share of the vote.

Blue State

Mr McCain is also running more strongly in states that are predominantly Democratic than those which normally vote for the Republicans.

According to exit polls in the main states, fewer than half of those who voted for Mr McCain describe themselves as conservative, while 75% to 80% of Romney and Huckabee voters say they are.

In Connecticut, one of the richest states in the nation and normally Democratic, Mr McCain had a five-to-one advantage among moderate and liberal Republicans compared to Mr Romney.

However, he lost narrowly among the 57% of Republicans who describe themselves as conservative in the state.

In the more conservative state of Oklahoma, which usually votes Republican, Mr McCain also won, but only gained 37% of the vote, with Mr Huckabee gaining 33% and Mr Romney 25%.

In a state where 70% of Republican voters describe themselves as evangelical Christians, Mr McCain only won 30% of their vote, but his strong showing among non-evangelicals, where he gained 57% of the vote, provided his margin of victory.

Mr McCain did well among Roman Catholic Republican voters

Mr McCain lost narrowly in key Republican heartland states such as Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, while he won the bellwether state of Missouri after a tight, three-way struggle.

In his home state of Arizona, Mr McCain did not manage to win a majority of Republican votes, gaining 49% to Mr Romney's 30%.

Immigration was the key issue for the largest group of Republican voters there, and those Republicans who said they wanted to deport illegal immigrants, voted heavily against Mr McCain, who has taken a moderate position on the issue.

Hispanic boost

Meanwhile, in the neighbouring state of California, the Hispanic vote has been delivering a key boost for Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Mrs Clinton won 69% of Hispanic votes in California, and Hispanics turned out in large numbers, making up 29% of the Democratic electorate.

This more than counter-balanced Mr Obama's 78% support among African-Americans, who made up only 6% of the California electorate.

Mr Obama won a strong majority of black voters across all seven Super Tuesday states with a significant African American population, ranging from 62% in New York to 94% in his home state of Illinois.

But Mrs Clinton managed to win three of them, including New York, Tennessee and Arkansas, by her strong showing among women and working class voters.

Mrs Clinton has also managed to maintain her lead among women voters, and women now make up significantly more than half of the Democratic electorate.

In California, Mrs Clinton had a 59% to 34% advantage among women, while in New York she won 62% of women voters (who made up 58% of the electorate).

Mr Obama's other great strength was among young voters.

He won 62% of white voters between 18-29 in California - but Mrs Clinton won older voters over 65 by 49% to 30%, and they make up a larger proportion of the electorate.

With the US economy going into recession, Mrs Clinton was also running more strongly among voters who worried about economic conditions and were less well-off, while Mr Obama's was strongest among high income voters and the college-educated.

Anti-Bush Republicans

Mr McCain's liberal views on social issues seem to have given him a big boost in California, where it looks like he will win handily but not with a majority of votes.

John McCain has wrapped up several winner-takes-all states

He is winning 47% of voters who want abortion to be legal, as opposed to 30% who want it to be illegal, and capturing 47% of those voters who only occasionally attend church, while getting only 30% of those who attend regularly.

But he has lost narrowly to Mr Romney among whites and registered Republicans, while polling strongly among independents.

Despite Mr McCain's strong support of the US troop "surge" in Iraq, he is the choice of the minority of Republican voters who are against the war and are disillusioned with the Bush administration.

Mr McCain's impressive victories look set to give him a big lead in the Republican race for the presidential nomination.

But his failure to appeal to key conservative Republican groups within the electorate could still make it more difficult for him to get out the Republican vote in the presidential election in November.

This analysis is based on exit polls conducted across16 Super Tuesday states of by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International on 5 February. The sample size in California was 1879 Democrats and 1063 Republicans, and the margin of error was +/-2%.