US pundits gaze into election crystal ball

Hillary Clinton's victory in the New Hampshire primary took pollsters and pundits by surprise.

As the dust settles, we ask a number of leading commentators which candidates they are now tipping to win the Democratic and Republican nominations.

CHRIS CILLIZZA - 'THE FIX', WASHINGTONPOST.COM

Can Obama persuade voters that he's the one?

On the Democratic side, it's a two-way race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And it won't necessarily be over even on 5 February. They could split the states holding primaries on that day between them.

There's chaos on the Republican side. There have been two different winners so far, there could be a third in Michigan and Rudy Giuliani is waiting in Florida. This means huge uncertainty, which won't resolve itself any time soon.

I cannot make any call between them on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, if John McCain could win Michigan - and that's a big "if" - he would go into South Carolina with some momentum. A win in South Carolina would make three straight wins, which would establish him as the frontrunner.

PROF LARRY SABATO - UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA

I think it is high time for pundits and pollsters to stop guessing - and that's all this is - and start permitting the process to play out in all of its wonderfully unpredictable ways.

There is an unfortunate tendency among the media and the political class to try to pull down the curtain in the middle of the play, or even after the first act. We should resist that temptation. There are surprise endings that no "expert" can anticipate.

It's enough to say that there is no frontrunner in either party, and the likelihood is that there will be multiple winners of future primaries and caucuses. The presidential selection process will now go to 5 February and quite possibly beyond that date, which is remarkable enough.

JEF McALLISTER, FORMER LONDON BUREAU CHIEF OF TIME

I will say, very conventionally, Hillary Clinton and John McCain.

Mike Huckabee is a good campaigner and he certainly attracts the socially conservative base

I think Hillary Clinton's level of organisation is better than Barack Obama's, and she has been more consistently ahead during the year. I think the Obama surge, though impressive and interesting, will probably decrease as people do focus more on his fundamental readiness for the job. Also, my experience with Hillary - for example, when I observed her campaigning for the Senate in upstate New York - is that the more people see her, the more they like her. And I think she has staying power.

But every prediction I have ever made like this has been wrong.

Mike Huckabee is a good campaigner and he certainly attracts the socially conservative base of the Republican Party. But that is a niche play - it's not enough to get him the nomination. Being a Baptist minister, and the fact that he is an evangelical, will turn off enough Republicans, so that, as in New Hampshire, the mainstream rallies around McCain, as the most electable candidate, the one with the most foreign policy experience, and the one most likely to appeal to independent voters.

WALTER SHAPIRO - SALON.COM

Basically it's going to be between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and between John McCain and Mike Huckabee. But I really have no idea what's going to happen. This is a particularly baffling year. In terms of the Democratic race, when you have a two-way race between a woman and an African American, there's no way you can tell how it is going to play out - it's unknowable.

There are many hurdles on the Republican side - not least the fact that neither McCain nor Huckabee have much money, and there are loads of primaries coming up.

On the Democratic side, Obama needs to fill in the blanks - his speeches are inspirational but they are not specific. He talks about a different future but that needs to be fleshed out. In terms of Hillary, people are still trying to figure out what makes her different - what her assets are. Both of them need to re-tool, the difference is that Hillary's campaign knows that, but I don't think that Barack's campaign is there yet.

TOM MANN, THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION

At this stage, I think it would be foolhardy to pick a nominee. On the Democratic side, I think there is every opportunity for Clinton and Obama. For the Republicans it is even more uncertain as additional candidates could conceivably emerge later on.

I can see the uncertainty extending beyond 5 February

I would say Clinton has a slight advantage on the Democratic side and McCain has a slight advantage on the Republican. The outcome has yet to be determined and I can see the uncertainty extending beyond 5 February [Super Tuesday].

The next big hurdles for the Democrats is the Nevada caucuses followed by the South Carolina primary. They are the two big tests between now and Super Tuesday.

Both candidates (Clinton and Obama) have a fighting chance at winning on 5 February depending on how things shape up in the interval.

For the Republicans, the next big test is for Romney in the Michigan primary where his candidacy is very weak. He was born and raised in the state. If he loses to McCain, he may well be mortally wounded.

Rudy says his test is in Florida and Huckabee says his test is South Carolina.