Crucial year for Chavez revolution

By James Ingham
BBC News, Caracas

"The revolutionary offensive has begun," was how Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez began his first TV show of 2008.

Mr Chavez has promised his version of the three Rs

Dressed in a smart red shirt, the socialist leader seemed ready and refreshed for a new phase in his political campaign as he introduced 13 new cabinet ministers following a major reshuffle.

"This is the start of a new public battle," he told viewers.

It was the first edition of his show "Alo Presidente" since an election defeat that had knocked Mr Chavez for six and slowed his socialist revolution.

Mr Chavez has had a month to reflect on what went wrong in December.

Venezuelans narrowly rejected wide-ranging reforms of the constitution that were aimed at cementing socialism into Venezuelan law and that would have given the president the chance to stand for re-election as many times as he wished.

"I am responsible for that defeat," he told the nation. "We weren't prepared and didn't have the level of organisation or consciousness for such a big step in the revolution."

"I am forced to put the brakes on this march," he warned, telling his ministers it was time to make some big changes.

"This will be the year of the three Rs: revision, rectification and relaunching," he said, promising to thoroughly review all his policies and ministries.

Reaching out?

Mr Chavez has often been criticised for concentrating too much on socialist ideology and affairs in other countries, rather than tackling real problems at home.

Some Venezuelans questioned why he was spending so much time trying to end neighbouring Colombia's conflict with the Farc rebels - although the fruit of his labour appears to be the release of the two women hostages, Clara Rojas and Consuelo Gonzalez, on Thursday.

Others question why he was investing so much in creating new continent-wide political institutions.

Three zeros have been lopped off the currency to tackle inflation

Here, people are more interested in rising crime, food shortages, rampant inflation and more mundane problems like the lack of rubbish collections in many parts of the capital, Caracas.

Perhaps sensing he had taken his eye off these key issues, Mr Chavez has this year begun to talk about them more.

"Insecurity and corruption are inherited evils that we must not allow to continue expanding. If we don't stop them, they become the biggest enemy of our revolution," he said. "And a revolutionary government cannot ignore piles of rubbish."

Mr Chavez has also offered pardons to a number of people involved in a coup against his government five years ago and he has talked about reaching out to the middle classes, a part of society he usually has little time for.

All this seems to indicate a toning down of his left-wing rhetoric and confrontational politics.

But this is a clear contrast from a few weeks ago, when he used swear words to describe the opposition's victory and pledged his reforms had been halted only "for now".

Ideals

Giant billboards and banners around Venezuela proclaiming this message ensure no one forgets that his political aims are still firmly in place.

So what is going on? Has Mr Chavez's much loved and much loathed style altered?

"Yes he looks like he's moderating," said Daniel Varnagy, a professor in politics at Caracas's Simon Bolivar University.

"But his ideals haven't changed. He's not going to suddenly get less lefty.

"Maybe he's realised that an aggressive approach isn't the best way to accomplish his goals. But he won't have lost track of his main focus. And he'll be focused on concentrating power this year."

Both Mr Chavez and his political opponents now have their sights set on October's regional elections for governors, mayors and local councils.

"The opposition will concentrate all their force and imperialist money to get me out of power," the president said on his show. "We can't afford to lose a day or even a minute in our campaign."

Opposition aims

While those behind what is known here as "Chavismo" have been analysing why they lost last year's key referendum, political opponents have been trying to capitalise on their rare victory. They believe now is the time to attack.

The battle over the referendum is over - for now, says Mr Chavez

"Just 12 months ago, Hugo Chavez strode Venezuela's political scene like a colossus and the opposition was worn thin, worn down and worn out," wrote the authors of opposition blog site Caracas Chronicles.

"Now, it's Chavismo that's looking dazed and confused."

As the opposition parties begin to choose their candidates, they will place more emphasis on showing they can be a united force.

"Our responsibility is to continue this atmosphere of unity so democracy can progress," the executive president of the New Era Party, Omar Barboza, said after a recent meeting of allies.

They will be trying to win over some of the three million voters who in the past had voted for Mr Chavez but who abstained in December's referendum.

Mr Chavez is hoping his new political party will also create some unity within his ranks. More than five million people have registered as members of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), with the most active of these formed into thousands of battalions.

This is meant to be grass roots politics offering the party bases more say in what goes on at the top.

But it is not without problems. Infighting and disagreements have plagued it from the start with some striking schisms within Chavismo unearthed.

With the PSUV's first national congress this weekend, all those involved know that 2008 will be a crucial year for their revolution.