Castro letter stokes speculation

By Michael Voss
BBC News, Havana

Cuban President Fidel Castro's statement that he does not intend to hold on to power is the first time since he was taken ill in 2006 that he has given any indication about his political future.

Fidel is a candidate for re-election to the National Assembly in January

"My basic duty is not to cling to office, nor even more so to obstruct the rise of people much younger," was his surprise message, read out on state television.

His role was, he said, "to pass on experiences and ideas whose modest value arises from the exceptional era in which I lived".

Although not a resignation letter, the statement does suggest that Mr Castro may not resume office but instead continue in the role of elder statesman advising the government on key issues.

Transition

It is almost 16 months since the 81-year-old leader had emergency stomach surgery and handed temporary power to his brother, Raul.

Raul Castro has encouraged debate but not instituted changes

At the time there was speculation about whether one-party rule could survive in Cuba without the man who has been at the helm since leading the revolution in 1959.

So far, though, it has proved to be a stable transition.

Acting President Raul Castro is not a charismatic leader like Fidel. His reputation is of a more pragmatic and practical administrator.

While there has been little change so far, Raul has encouraged debate on the country's main economic problems.

He has also offered to sit down at the negotiating table with the United States and earlier this month the government announced that Cuba would finally sign the two main United Nations human rights accords.

But there is no sign whatsoever of any change in political direction or an opening up of the communist state.

Bombshell

Fidel Castro holds two key positions of power in Cuba: President of the Council of State and First Secretary of the Communist Party, which many believe is where the real power lies.

Several figures could emerge to take over the reins of power

Earlier this month Fidel Castro was nominated as a candidate for next year's National Assembly elections.

If elected he would then be officially eligible to resume the presidency.

Now there is speculation as to whether he will stand down and formally pass the baton on to Raul or even one of the younger generation of communists.

There are several senior figures within the party who could emerge as potential candidates.

These include Carlos Lage Davila, 56, a vice president of the Council of State with special responsibilities for the economy, and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, who is just 42.

Cubans are still trying to asses the implications of Fidel Castro's statement.

The headlines in the state-controlled press here are that he wrote a letter about climate change, which is published in full.

The bombshell about his political intentions is almost an afterthought at the very end.