US Republican race far from won

By Richard Allen Greene
BBC News, Washington

Step into the posh hotel overlooking Washington DC where conservatives are gathering for their yearly bash this weekend, and it won't be long before you are offered a sticker or a badge emblazoned with the name of someone who hopes to keep the White House in Republican hands when George W Bush's term ends.

Conservatives were upset even at where Mr McCain announced

Mitt Romney? Sam Brownback? Their supporters are out in force, handing out campaign material.

Even Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state who has never even hinted that she might run for president next year, has a lone enthusiast hopefully bearing a red balloon saying "Condi '08".

That puts Ms Rice at least one supporter ahead of the man who announced on Wednesday that he is running for president - Senator John McCain of Arizona.

Hawkish on defence, opposed to abortion, a Vietnam veteran and former prisoner of war, Sen McCain would in some ways seem to be the natural conservative champion.

'Pandering to liberals'

But the Republican base has never truly warmed to him, and one leading conservative opinion-shaper says the feeling is mutual.

"This is the largest gathering of conservatives and he's not here," said blogger Michelle Malkin, noting that the senator is the only serious contender for the Republican nomination who is not addressing the three-day Conservative Political Action Conference.

Michelle Malkin suggested Mr McCain should have been at CPAC

"McCain hasn't bothered to show up. That bodes very ill for the base," she warns.

She blasted his decision to announce on David Letterman's popular late-night comedy show.

"Choosing Letterman was a very interesting venue. He would rather pander to Letterman's liberal audience" than the conservative activists at the conference, she said.

Senator McCain - who lost out on the party's nomination in 2000 to George W Bush - had been leading in the polls of Republican contenders until recently, but most recent surveys have suggested a swing in favour of former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.

'Foundation in place'

Some top Washington observers warn that the polls numbers do not tell the whole story, however.

Mr Giuliani may be seen as a hero by many Americans for his decisive behaviour on 11 September 2001, but he has not built the political machine that undergirds Senator McCain's assault on the White House.

"In 2006, John McCain did the brickwork to lay the foundation for a national campaign," said Jim Barnes, a correspondent for the National Journal.

"He has a national political apparatus in place and a lot of party activists in key states committed to his candidacy.

"That is going to count for something when the primaries and the caucuses come in January 2008," he said.

But he conceded that conservative activists had doubts about all three of the presumed Republican front-runners - Mr McCain, Mr Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov Mitt Romney.

Doubts

Mr Romney has made the greatest effort of the three to position himself as a champion of conservative values, but doubts remain about him.

Katie McLaughlin, a nursing student who attended the conservative conference, is from Mr Romney's state of Massachusetts.

Ms McLaughlin warns the presidency is physically demanding

She was disturbed that he appeared to have changed positions on litmus-test conservative issues like abortion and gay rights.

"I don't know truly what he's for. I don't trust that," she said.

She expressed concern that Mr McCain, for his part, may be too old for the job.

He will be 72 on election day 2008, and would be the oldest man ever elected president if he were to triumph.

"Look at Clinton and Bush physically - being president takes a toll," she said.

Drawbacks

At least one recent poll suggested that Sen McCain's age may be the greatest handicap any serious contender in either party is facing.

The late-February ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 58% of Americans said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate of Mr McCain's age - more than objected to a Mormon (Mr Romney), a double divorcee (Mr Giuliani), or a smoker (Democrat Barack Obama, who says he is trying to quit).

(Voters did not appear less likely to vote for someone because they were black, like Mr Obama, or a woman, like Democrat Hillary Clinton.)

The lingering doubts about the various Republican candidates may mean there is room for a late entry - if declaring only 14 months before the election counts as "late entry".

Conservative activist Richard Disney is hoping for one: "Newt Gingrich is the only one who could come in and make a splash. I'd like to see him enter."

The former Speaker of the House will be the last person to address this year's conservative conference.

He has said he will not make his intentions known until September.

While the prospect of Mr Gingrich entering the race may excite some, National Journal writer Jim Barnes said September may be too late.

"Letting the other candidates slog it out and then coming in in September and being a new face is not the way people usually win presidential nominations in this country," he said.

"They are the product of a lot of work. You go out and get them - they don't come to you.

"I am not saying that cannot happen, but that is not the way it has happened in the past."