Can Hillary Clinton win in 2008?

By Richard Allen Greene
BBC News, Washington

Hillary Clinton has money and top brains backing her

Hillary Clinton has finally announced that she is considering running for president in 2008 - a declaration anticipated for the past six years that puts a heavyweight contender into the race.

Senator Clinton has already made history by becoming the first former first lady to be elected to public office.

But all thoughts will now turn to whether the New York Democrat really has what it takes to become the first woman president of the United States.

It would be foolish to dismiss a woman who sits on an enormous war chest and is backed by some of the best political strategists in the country.

But it would be equally unwise to bet that the US will elect a woman president when the country is at war - much less one who is already reviled by a substantial minority of Americans for her perceived liberalism and association with Bill Clinton.

Warning to Republicans

HILLARY CLINTON Born 26 October, 1947 in Chicago Attended Wellesley College Graduated from Yale Law School in 1973 Married Bill Clinton in 1975 Campaigner for expanding health insurance coverage and woman's rights Elected New York senator in 2000; re-elected 2006 Profile: Hillary Clinton

Mark Corallo, a Republican strategist, reckons she has a good chance of capturing the White House in 2008 - and says he is constantly warning friends against underestimating her.

"Every time a Republican tells me: 'We want [to run against] Hillary', I say: 'Be careful what you wish for'.

"There is no other candidate on either side of the equation that has the instant party organisation and the ability to raise an enormous amount of money.

"She has the two most formidable strategists in the Democratic Party - Terry McAuliffe and Harold Ickes," Mr Corallo says before correcting himself: "No, three, because Bill Clinton is the most formidable. The guy is brilliant."

Mr Corallo, co-owner of the consultancy Corallo Comstock, says only one Democrat could take the party's nomination away from Senator Clinton: Barack Obama, the first-term senator from Illinois.

"He has the 'wow factor' that Bill had," the strategist says, which, he predicts, will make him Senator Clinton's first target.

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"Hillary's partisans will start to whisper that he is an empty suit" without the experience to win or govern, he says.

"If Obama is tough enough, it is going to be an interesting primary season," he says.

Goliath and Davids

But Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, is not so certain that Hillary Clinton will be waltzing into the White House any time soon.

"She's Goliath, but plenty of Goliaths have been downed by Davids," says Mr Sabato, who specialises in elections.

Senator Clinton regularly comes top in polls asking Democrats who they would like their 2008 White House candidate to be.

Mr Sabato argues that is simply because "everyone knows who she is".

In the states that are first to choose their preferred presidential candidate, he adds, she is not doing as well.

This is nowhere near the slam-dunk it is made out to be Larry Sabato, Center for Politics

"It is surprising how weak she is in places like Iowa and New Hampshire, and they matter enormously."

He says the intensely committed party activists in those states may fear she cannot win a national election and will shy away from her.

"They realise she has serious problems - we are going to get a regurgitation of all those past scandals and controversies with new wrinkles and information."

He also thinks her personality does her no favours.

"People just don't warm up to her, including a lot of Democrats - they don't dislike her, but they don't feel warmly towards her at all," he says.

"And I have never understood how someone could spend so much time around Bill Clinton and be such a wooden speaker," he adds.

"I'm not saying she can't get nominated or that she can't win a general election. But this is nowhere near the slam-dunk it is made out to be."