Bush brings in policy 'realists'

By Jonathan Beale
BBC News, Washington

Even the White House acknowledges that the result of the mid-term elections was in some way the American public's verdict on the direction of US foreign policy - particularly in Iraq.

Will a change in personnel mean a change in policy?

Battered and bruised, the Bush administration is now under huge pressure to change direction.

The departure of Donald Rumsfeld is seen as one indication that the White House has listened to its critics. But it is clear that is not enough.

Democrats also want the president to change America's ambassador to the United Nations - John Bolton, a totem of the right.

And this is not just about a change of personnel - Democrats and many moderate Republicans want a change of policy too.

Enter the 'realists'

The departure of Mr Rumsfeld and the arrival of Robert Gates at the Pentagon is being interpreted as the end of the road for the ideologues and the re-entry into orbit of the foreign policy "realists".

So-called "realists" are supposed to have a more nuanced view of the world.

They do not - like the so-called neo-conservatives - see everything in black and white terms.

Bush 41 - the current president's father - is seen as a "realist".

Mr Cheney and Ms Rice served Mr Bush's father as well

So is his former Secretary of State, James Baker.

Mr Baker is currently reviewing the options in Iraq as the co-chair of the Iraq Study Group - of which Robert Gates is also a member.

Mr Baker has already stated that he believes there is an alternative between "staying the course" and "cut and run".

Zbigniew Brzezinski - National Security Adviser to President Carter - said he hopes that personnel changes at the White House will bring "a degree of rationality, common sense, balance and historical perspective" to the table.

But it's worth remembering that many of the first George Bush's senior advisers have been surrounding his son for the past six years.

Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice and Stephen Hadley were around when Bush 41 was in charge of the White House.

The newly appointed Mr Gates may be seen as more "moderate" than Donald Rumsfeld.

But he was a "hawk" in the cold war era.

No doubt the new arrivals will bring a fresh perspective to the White House.

But don't expect US forces to exit Iraq overnight or for Iran and Syria to be greeted with open arms.

Talking to the enemy?

However President Bush will now be encouraged to talk to the enemy.

Even before the defeat there was a growing chorus of senior diplomats, Democrats and even Republican voices calling on the Bush administration to engage with countries like Iran and Syria.

Mr Baker's new Iraq plan might involve talks with Iran or Syria

Until now the Bush/Rice policy has been akin to telling the naughty boy in the classroom to face the corner - in the hope that everyone will ignore him until he repents and mends his ways.

So far in the case of Iran, Syria, North Korea and Venezuela, the policy appears to have had limited success.

Mr Gates in the past has advocated talking to Iran.

But there is no guarantee that talking will get results either.

In truth, the Bush administration's foreign policy was already evolving.

The arrival of Condoleezza Rice at the State Department signalled an emphasis on diplomacy rather than a reliance on America's military might. (Colin Powell might have wished to use the tools of diplomacy, but he never had the ear of the president.)

That change was forced on an administration that faced international isolation after the Iraq war.

Democrats' dilemma

In the euphoria of victory the Democrats might be hoping for wholesale change.

But Congress has never had the final say on foreign policy.

The Democrats' new power may now make life more difficult for the president, but George Bush has already made it clear that he is not going to abandon his goal of defeating terrorism in Iraq or ease the pressure on North Korea and Iran.

There's a dilemma too for the Democrats.

They cannot afford to appear weak in the face of the threats that America faces if they are to have any chance of eventually taking the White House.