Power gamble on Mexico's streets

Daniel Lak
BBC News, Mexico City

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador may have lost the vote counting after the 2 July presidential election in Mexico. But he is still the big winner on the streets of the capital city.

Hundreds of thousands of enthusiastic Lopez Obrador supporters crammed into the square known as Zocalo, in the heart of Mexico City's historic central district on Saturday.

Mexico City is Mr Lopez Obrador's most passionate constituency

There was no empty space, save behind a few huge banners that blocked the view of the stage.

Men, women and children cheered wildly and waved yellow flags. They chanted the name of the man they believe won last week's election.

"Lopez Obrador, Lopez Obrador, Lopez Obrador," rang over the shops and offices in the ornate downtown.

The message from the man on the stage: "We did win the election and nothing short of a full recount of all the ballots will prove it."

In a speech lasting more than an hour, Mr Lopez Obrador told the crowd that the vote count was fixed.

"We are going to ask that they clean up the elections. We are going to ask that they count all the votes - vote-by-vote, poll-by-poll," he said to wide applause.

The case for fraud would be made this Monday to the seven-judge Federal Election Tribunal and the Mexican Supreme Court, he added.

Lopez Obrador is insisting all votes be recounted

In the meantime, he called for more rallies and a "national march for democracy" from voting districts to the capital in the coming weeks.

Political analysts say a full recount is not part of Mexican law and Mr Lopez Obrador needs to prove his street power to emphasise his demands for all 41 million votes to be counted again.

His opponent, Felipe Calderon of the right-of-centre National Action Party, won the election with a margin of fewer than 245,000 votes.

Divided voters

Mexican presidential elections are first-past-the-post, so Mr Calderon's victory is legal.

But, as the rally in Mexico City demonstrates, the electorate is deeply divided.

We are tired of the rich having everything and the poor having nothing Belasario Cruz, farmer

Most of Mr Calderon's votes came from Mexico's industrialized north and its middle and upper classes.

The poorer south of the country and urban neighbourhoods, where poverty or trade-unionism can be found, opted for Mr Lopez Obrador.

"We are ready to do whatever is necessary," said Belasario Cruz, 32, a farmer from Mr Lopez Obrador's home state of Tabasco, in southeast Mexico.

"We are tired of the rich having everything and the poor having nothing."

Truce unlikely

For his part, Mr Calderon has reached out to his opponents and invited them into his cabinet.

But as long as street protests and legal challenges take place, that's not an invitation that will be well regarded in Mr Lopez Obrador's camp.

Analysts warn that Mexico's young democracy could be in danger

For several days now, Mexican political analysts have been warning about the dangers of division to the country's young democracy.

Some say he should be thinking of the next elections in six years' time, and preparing for victory then.

"His political stock would increase greatly for 2012" if he finds a way to concede defeat gracefully, political analyst Oscar Aguilar said.

But after a hugely successful political rally in the heart of his most passionate constituency - Mexico City - Mr Lopez Obrador can be expected to fight on.

He is warning his supporters to keep their protests peaceful.

But Mexico can look forward to weeks of uncertainty and disruption while this intense political drama plays out.