Cautious Mid-East optimism greets Bush win

By Jon Leyne BBC News correspondent in Amman

Leaders and other senior figures across the Middle East have queued up to offer their congratulations to President George W Bush on his re-election. But many people in this troubled region view "four more years" with foreboding.

Anti-US sentiment in Iran was in evidence during a recent protest outside the US embassy in Tehran

Messages have been sent to the White House from Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Officials with Yasser Arafat in Paris have offered their good wishes on behalf of the Palestinian leader, even though Mr Bush has been harshly critical of Mr Arafat.

Iran has been less enthusiastic, but even one senior official there, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, an adviser to President Mohammad Khatami, suggested Mr Bush's victory was good news because of John Kerry's lack of experience in dealing with the region .

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was one of a number of Arab leaders to call on Mr Bush to work harder for peace between Israel and the Palestinians in his second term.

"We hope Mr Bush's new administration, together with the EU, can bring influence to bear to arrive at a peaceful development in the region," the Egyptian leader said.

Fearing the worst

It's easy to argue that the Middle East views President Bush as an ogre. The picture is not quite that simple, but many do fear the worst from a second term.

"We should expect a more tense Middle East in the coming four years under Mr Bush's leadership," said Labib Kamhawi, a political analyst based in the Jordanian capital, Amman.

"And we should expect a more arrogant and less compromising president, who believes that he has been re-elected because his policies capture the support and acceptance of the American people."

We hope the US administration will be more engaged in solving the Arab-Israel conflict Palestinian PM Ahmed Qurei

In contrast, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, described President Bush as "the most friendly president towards Israel that we have ever had".

It is that unqualified support for Israel that has alienated much of Arab opinion, combined with the growing number of civilian casualties in Iraq, and Mr Bush's uncompromising language of "crusades".

Yet, ironically, many Iraqis still support President Bush for getting rid of former President Saddam Hussein.

Additionally, some Iranians quietly hope Mr Bush will also help the cause of reformers in their country.

Israel knows it will have a firm friend in Washington, whichever party is in power.

But the Israeli leader, Ariel Sharon, also suspects he may come under more pressure during a second Bush term to withdraw Jewish settlements and reach an accommodation with the Palestinians.

Israeli commentators point out that Mr Bush might be forced to apply more pressure on Israel as the price of reconciliation with Europe and in order to defuse the situation throughout the Middle East.

Syrian, Iranian nervousness

No-one can be more nervous, surely, than Syria and Iran.

Syria is being pressed by both the United States and France to withdraw its remaining troops in Lebanon. Iran is in a continued standoff with the United States over its nuclear programme.

Yet any thought either country might be the next target for invasion is wild exaggeration.

Washington still maintains diplomatic relations with Syria - a long way from the chill that existed with Saddam's Iraq.

Even the toughest hawks in Washington know war with Iran is almost inconceivable. Indeed, the occupation of Iraq is already seriously over-stretching American forces.

Despite the widespread dislike of Mr Bush in the Middle East there are voices suggesting he is the man to finish what he has started.

Analyst Mr Kamhawi argues a victory for John Kerry would have done the region no favours.

"I always believed it was better to have Bush re-elected than having Kerry elected," he said. "Because, had Bush failed, a lot of Arabs and Muslims might believe that victory has been attained against Bush, and this is quite fallacious."

So the Middle East will just have to learn to live with President Bush.