Haiti's escalating violence

By James Painter
BBC Americas analyst

There are fears that Haiti may be sliding towards chaos

UN officials, aid workers and journalists all agree that the security situation in Haiti - the key to the country's political stability - is getting worse.

The capital, Port-au-Prince, has been scene to frequent gun battles and even beheadings over the last few days, and at least 45 people have been killed.

In the northern town of Gonaives, ravaged by floods last month, violent attacks are disrupting the relief efforts.

Most observers believe the causes of the violence in the two cities are distinct, but fear the undercurrents of political turmoil are flowing stronger than at any time since former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide left the country in February.

The government's lack of leadership has been stunning Haiti correspondent Financial Times newspaper

Reports that former soldiers who took part in the armed uprising against Mr Aristide could be advancing on the capital in an attempt to stop the violence will only add to those fears.

Their presence could lead to conflict with armed Aristide supporters or even UN peacekeepers.

'Operation Baghdad'

The violence escalated in Port-au-Prince after a demonstration on 30 September by Aristide supporters to mark the anniversary of the coup that first overthrew Mr Aristide in 1991.

That day, the police were reported to have shot two demonstrators, and shortly afterwards three policemen were beheaded in the Belair slum area of Port-au-Prince, a stronghold of the Chimeres, the pro-Aristide gangs.

Aristide supporters have stepped up their campaign to restore Mr Aristide, launching what they called Operation Baghdad. More beheadings have taken place since.

"They said they were going to transform Port-au-Prince into Baghdad, referring to the situation of the hostages in Iraq," Haitian journalist Herold Jean Francoise told the BBC's Spanish website, BBCMundo.com

"And the beheadings started soon after that. It seems they want to give sustenance to the arguments of Aristide supporters in the USA during the electoral campaign that Bush's policy in Haiti has failed. It's part of a well-defined strategy," he said.

Gang strongholds

For that reason, Francoise predicts more violence this month.

There is a desperate need for food aid in Gonaives

What is certain is that the 3,000 UN troops currently in Haiti, mostly drawn from Brazil, Argentina and Chile, have made little progress in disarming the Chimeres and other paramilitary gangs in their strongholds in the capital's slum areas.

Several hundred troops were deployed to Gonaives to help relief efforts, diluting the security presence in Port-au-Prince.

Adrian Sanchez, head of the Argentine contingent of the UN force in Gonaives, told BBCMundo.com that even though the situation there was desperate, it was under control.

"It's very different to the capital where the situation is essentially driven by politics," said Mr Sanchez.

Desperation

Nevertheless, aid workers and visiting journalists report a high degree of volatility driven by the terrible living conditions and the presence of organised armed groups.

The desperation, they say, is in part driven by frustration with the government of Gerard Latortue, which they say has not lived up to its promises.

"The government's lack of leadership has been stunning," wrote a correspondent for the Financial Times during a visit this week.

The UN is expected to send 3,700 more troops by the end of the year.

That should help to calm the security situation, which is by far the most pressing problem.

Many analysts agree it is very difficult to talk of elections - due at the end of next year - in the current climate.

And in the longer term, they argue, Haiti's civilian institutions which barely function will have to be strengthened.