If Iraq unravels, Bush may follow

By Kevin Anderson
BBC News Online in Washington

Bush has tied his fortunes to US success in Iraq

The spectre of Iraq spiralling out of control could have serious consequences for the US president's attempts to secure his seat in the White House for another four years.

George W Bush has not had a good year, and with rising unrest in Iraq, it could get much worse.

His State of the Union address was considered a muddle, the economy has been stuck in a so-called jobless recovery, and his former counter-terrorism chief seized the spotlight with allegations that the Bush administration was obsessed with Iraq instead of being focused on al-Qaeda.

Political pundits say that this election will hinge on two things very much out of the control of either Mr Bush or his challenger John Kerry: The economy and Iraq.

But just as the news was looking better for Mr Bush on the economic front, Iraq looks set to unravel.

As a sitting president, this election is Mr Bush's to lose, but if Iraq descends into chaos, it will be much more difficult for him to win.

Troubles ahead

In the wake of the 11 September attacks, Mr Bush has enjoyed historically high approval ratings.

He is running for re-election as a war-time president, a leader who rallied the country in a time of turmoil and kept Americans safe from additional terrorist attacks.

But what does it mean for the self-described war-time president if the war starts going badly?

The most recent poll from the non-partisan Pew Research Centre shows that the rising unrest in Iraq has had little impact on US public support for the war.

Last September, 63% of Americans thought going to war was the right decision, while a poll taken shortly after the brutal killings of four US civilian security workers in Falluja shows that a still-solid 57% of those polled support the war.

Iraq has just become more violent

Much has been made about the "Vietnam Syndrome", the reluctance of the US government and the US public to support military intervention in the face of casualties.

But casualties do not seem to be having as much of an impact on public opinion about the war as they do with public opinion about Mr Bush.

In September 2003, the Pew poll found 52% of Americans approved of the president's handling of the situation in Iraq, but now, 53% of Americans disapprove of Mr Bush's Iraq policy.

And it is having an impact on his overall job approval ratings as well, as the poll shows they have slipped to 43%.

Even senior members of his own party, senators Chuck Hagel and Richard Lugar, have asked if more troops are needed to prevent Iraq from slipping into civil war, and have questioned whether the US should reconsider the 30 June deadline for handing over power.

The White House has dispatched Secretary of State Colin Powell to meet these senators.

But the polls and grumblings within his own party make it clear: Mr Bush is vulnerable.

Democrats attack

For the past year, Democrats - even those who voted to give the president authority to use force in Iraq - have aggressively criticised Mr Bush's policy in Iraq.

This week, Senator Edward Kennedy - a strong supporter of presumptive Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry - said that Iraq is Mr Bush's Vietnam, a quagmire.

And Mr Kerry said on Monday with respect to the handover: "I have always said consistently that it is a mistake to set an arbitrary date, and I hope that the date has nothing to do with the election here in the United States."

But chaos in Iraq is not without its risk for Mr Kerry.

He voted to give the president authority to use force in Iraq - a move that he had difficulty explaining even to voters in his own party angered by the war.

And that vote has given ammunition to his Republican opponents.

The Bush campaign has sought to portray Mr Kerry as a flip-flopper - someone who changes his position depending on which way the political wind blows.

"(John Kerry) has been in the Senate long enough to take both sides on almost every issue," Mr Bush says often in campaign speeches.

It's a perception that seems to be resonating with voters and led to Mr Kerry slipping in some recent polls.

And the Democrats know that they can criticise Mr Bush and his policies in Iraq but must take care not to be seen to be seeking political advantage in the deaths of American soldiers.

But Mr Bush took the US to war, and it is the president who stands to lose if violence continues to escalate.

If Iraq grows ever more chaotic as Americans go to the polls in November, voters could very likely send Mr Kerry to the White House and Mr Bush back to Texas.