Analysis: Third time lucky for Menem?

By Nick Caistor
For BBC News Online in Buenos Aires

Many Argentines are superstitious about even saying his name.

On the campaign trail: Menem is seeking a third term as president

Profile: Carlos Menem

This is because Carlos Saul Menem, who is again standing for the presidency in the April elections, is thought to bring bad luck to anyone associated with him.

"He visited the Argentine football team in Rome in 1990, and they crashed out of the World Cup," says student Julieta Campos, a teenager at the time.

"Then one of his best friends, a speedboat champion, died in an accident after Menem had been on board. And also of course his son was killed piloting his own helicopter."

Despite this reputation, Carlos Menem, who was president of Argentina from 1989 to 1999, is confident he can win what he calls a "historic" third term in office.

"During my 10 years in office, six million new cars were sold in Argentina. Two and a half million new dwellings were built, and we were a presence in the world. We can do this again in my third term," he told reporters at the start of the election campaign.

Since stepping down in 1999, Mr Menem has married a young Chilean former beauty queen, has spent five months under house arrest for his alleged involvement in illegal arms sales, and has been involved in many - as yet unproven - allegations of corruption regarding state funds.

Adolfo Rodriguez Saa: President for five days at the height of economic chaos in 2001

When Mr Menem won the elections in 1989 and 1995, he was the only candidate of the Justicialista or Peronist Party.

But this time the Peronist vote will be split between three candidates, none of whom is officially endorsed by the Justicialista Party after attempts to hold a primary election were scrapped.

Apart from Mr Menem, there is Adolfo Rodriguez Saa, a Peronist leader from the interior, who was president for five days in December 2001, when economic and social chaos led to a succession of four presidents in less than a fortnight.

There is also another provincial governor, Nestor Kirchner.

He is widely seen as the frontman for the current President, Eduardo Duhalde, who is barred from standing this time around.

"In these elections, Duhalde and Menem are fighting for control of the Peronist Party as well as of the country," says Andrew Graham-Yooll, senior editor of the Buenos Aires Herald newspaper.

Mr Kirchner is seen as the frontman for the current president

"They have both benefitted from Peronism enormously in the past, and there is no ideological difference between them, but there is a lot of animosity and both desperately want to win."

As well as Mr Menem and the other "Peronist" candidates, there are three candidates who in the past were linked to the opposition Radical Party, a candidate of the United Left, and several independents.

"The problem is that the opposition to Peronism is also split," says Mr Graham-Yooll.

"The Radicals are held to blame for the 2001 collapse, and the independents are seen as having no experience, so most people think the choice is between Menem and Kirchner."

Second round

Mr Menem is confidently predicting that he will win in the first round of voting on 27 April, so that there will be no need for a run-off vote, scheduled to take place three weeks later.

Independent observers, such as Rosendo Fraga of the Nueva Mayoria think-tank, are not so sure:

If that man gets into power again, I'm leaving the country

Julieta Campos, student

"Menem has the highest proportion of people who would never vote for him. So he needs to win the first round by eight or 10 points if he is to stand a chance in the run-off, where the anti-Menem vote will be concentrated against him."

Despite Mr Menem's predictions, the elections are likely to go to a second round, the first time this has happened in Argentine history.

Most people in Argentina agree that the outcome of the presidential race is very uncertain, but for her part Julieta Campos reflects the views of many when she says, carefully avoiding mentioning him by name:

"If that man gets into power again, I'm leaving the country."