Who will run a post-Saddam Iraq?

Who will run a post-Saddam Iraq?

By Steve Schifferes
BBC News Online correspondent in Washington

On the eve of the decision to go war, it appears that final judgments have yet to be reached about how a post-Saddam Iraq would be governed.

As the crisis escalated, President Bush has made it clear that the aim of the war is not just disarmament, but the liberation of the people of Iraq from tyranny.

In his speech to the nation, he promised to free the Iraqi people from a terrible dictator.

And the weekend summit with the UK and Spanish leaders in the Azores produced a ringing declaration giving a "solemn obligation to help the Iraqi people build a new Iraq at peace with itself and its neighbours...and support their aspirations for a representative government that upholds human rights and the rule of law."

Estimates vary of how long it might take to subdue Iraq

President Bush has said the US will stay "as long as it takes" but "not a moment longer" to accomplish that goal.

Late last week, US National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice told an Arab television audience that the US favoured the creation of an "Iraqi interim authority" similar to the current government of Afghanistan.

But the US is still searching for the Iraqi leaders it hopes could govern the country after Saddam Hussein, and meantime it is preparing for what could be a large occupation force for some years to come.

Legacy of tyranny

In the same declaration, the US, UK and Spain said they "envisage a unified Iraq with its territorial integrity respected."

One of the key problems of any new government would be the role of the Kurds, who are now operating a quasi-independent state in the northern no-fly zone of Iraq.

Although the Kurds have joined a loose coalition with other Iraqi opposition leaders, the shape of any future constitution - and how much autonomy it would accord the Kurds - is still to be decided.

The Kurdish zone was set up after the 1991 war

Reaching agreement on the form of government for a new and free Iraq will be further complicated by the lack of an independent judiciary and weakness of civil society after years of tyranny.

The popularity of any leaders drawn from the exile community is also untested.

At the beginning of the year, the Pentagon created an Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, headed by General James Garner, to manage civilian affairs in Iraq in the immediate aftermath of war.

And it is preparing to supply food, medical supplies and bedding to the millions of Iraqis who are expected to be displaced by any conflict.

Unanswered questions

The army will also have many other immediate tasks, such as disarming the Iraqi secret police and searching for weapons of mass destruction - and could be the target of attacks.

And it must guard the oil fields and protect Iraq from potential threats from its neighbours.

US success will depend on America's determination to stay the course

Independent report on rebuilding Iraq

That has led the chief of the Army, General Shinseki, to suggest to a Congressional committee earlier this month that it might take 100,000 troops several years to secure Iraq.

That was immediately denied by his boss, Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who said it would be much fewer.

Marc Grossman, the under secretary state for political affairs, told Congress it could take two years of occupation before the situation stabilised.

The US is clearly uneasy about an occupation that might last this long.

Future burden

Even President Bush hinted that he would like a role for the UN in the rebuilding of Iraq, saying that the UN can get "its legs of responsibility back" and it "will need to have a role" in a post-Saddam Iraq.

Several expert reports have suggested that the US should start now to organise a civilian administration in conjunction with the international community, and commit substantial resources to funding that body.

But whether such co-operation would be forthcoming after the diplomatic debacle of the past few weeks - and whether a non-American might emerge to run Iraq temporarily - is as yet unclear.

Meanwhile, the political, military and economic burden of reconstruction is likely to fall on the US.

"US success will depend on America's determination to stay the course," said an independent report on rebuilding Iraq led by former US defence secretary James Schlesinger.