US considers 'Plan B' on Iraq

US considers 'Plan B' on Iraq

By Nick Childs BBC Pentagon Correspondent

The US still expects Turkey to provide some support

It is a measure of how anxious the US military has been to deploy forces in Turkey as part of its build-up for possible war with Iraq that it has waited as long as it has for a decision from the Turks.

Turkey has been seen as the door to a northern front in Iraq into the critical and sensitive Kurdish areas.

There is a "Plan B" if there is no go-ahead from Ankara, but that is clearly a second-best option.

US defence officials say they still hope they will get some help from Turkey - including agreement on aircraft reinforcements and overflight rights - but the most important element as far as the Americans have been concerned, and the most controversial for Turkey, has been soldiers on the ground.

These measures would all complicate and slow down an already complex war plan which is meant to rely on speed

At least one division - the 4th Infantry Division - has been waiting for weeks to see if it will get clearance.

The fallback positions could involve flying lighter ground forces in from Kuwait or further afield - even, possibly, from the United States.

Ground forces could move up from Kuwait through western Iraq, but that would take longer and the US supply chain then would be very long.

These measures would all complicate and slow down an already complex war plan which is meant to rely on speed.

Advanced stage

It is a sign of how far advanced US preparations are that the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, has just signed deployment orders for a further 60,000 troops which the Pentagon are calling "follow-on forces".

WITH TURKISH BACKING

Plan A: Thousands of US ground troops backed by tanks pour into northern Iraq

Objectives: Capture key towns Mosul and Kirkuk. Force would then move south to Tikrit and Baghdad

Map: Attack strategies

In other words, the US war plan does not depend on them arriving in the region before any conflict could start.

They could replace forces already there, join in later waves in any attack or possibly provide security in Iraq after a conflict.

The fact that such forces are being mobilised shows just how advanced the US build-up is.

It is not clear when they would begin deploying, but even if they start moving immediately, it could still take them several weeks to arrive.

Meanwhile, the skirmishes in the no-fly zones over Iraq have entered a new phase, with an escalation in air strikes by aircraft from the US and British forces which could help pave the way for an attack.

WITHOUT TURKISH BACKING

Plan B: Airborne force with light armour takes key towns and seizes oil fields [1]. Ground troops cross desert from Kuwait in support [2]

Objectives: Capture key towns Mosul and Kirkuk. Secure oil fields

Map: Attack strategies

At the same time, the Pentagon reports that the Iraqis have also been probing the no-fly zones, to test US and British responses.

The Americans insist they are still only responding to what they describe as Iraqi provocations, while the Iraqis say the western planes are hitting civilian targets.

But aircraft from the US and British forces struck targets on 16 occasions in the south of Iraq, and twice in the north in February alone.

And they have expanded their target list to include not just air defences but also surface-to-surface missile systems which the Americans say could threaten US and allied forces.

The attacks on the Iraqi air defence system seem to have intensified as well but some of those strikes are repeat attacks on the same targets, because the Iraqis keep repairing them.

That is evidence of how difficult it is to cause lasting damage.

What is more, most of Iraq's air defences are concentrated around Baghdad and, for the moment, US and British aircraft are leaving those alone.