Bush speech to focus on war

Mr Bush will strike a balance between war and economy

President George W Bush is expected to focus on the war against terrorism, security and the US economic recession in his first State of the Union address later on Tuesday.

Following the 11 September attacks on the United States, the speech is being billed as one of the most important annual addresses by a president to Congress and the American people since Franklin D Roosevelt's in 1942.

Positive points for Mr Bush

Leadership in war

Approval rating higher than 80%

Mr Bush - hugely popular in the United States because of his leadership in the war - is expected to try to inspire and reassure Americans.

Negative factors for Mr Bush

US economic recession

Links with Enron

He is likely to use his State of the Union speech - one of the most important events in the American political calendar - to try to convince Americans that he can turn victory in war into success in the more contentious area of domestic policy, analysts say.

It is also a chance for Mr Bush to rally support in the run-up to vital mid-term congressional elections.

Close race for Congress

The Republican party will be defending a six-seat majority in the House of Representatives and trying to overturn a one-seat deficit in the Senate.

Although Mr Bush's approval rating - higher than 80% - surpasses any since his father's at the end of the Gulf War, he is keenly aware that George Bush senior went on to lose an election to Bill Clinton, whose campaign highlighted the struggling US economy.

The war remains voters' number one concern

The speech - broadcast on national television in prime time, and also to be webcast on the White House site - will give Mr Bush a chance to link the war with the economy.

He is expected to argue that he is bolstering people's sense of security - not only through the campaign against terror and increased security - but also by planning to cut taxes to stimulate the economy.

Mr Bush is also expected to emphasise his plans for a $48bn increase in military spending - the biggest in 20 years - and another $18.2bn to improve security in the United States.

Vulnerable over deficit

The Democrats have tried to blame Mr Bush's administration for the recession.

They argue that Mr Bush's $1.3 trillion tax cut is to blame for the disappearing US budget surplus and the return to deficit spending.

Democrats believe Mr Bush remains vulnerable to the fallout from Enron

But analysts say the war remains voters' number one concern - while the budget deficit would only be important if people were worried about losing their jobs.

Democrats also believe that Mr Bush's administration is vulnerable because of its ties with the collapsed oil giant Enron.

The president, for his part, is expected to highlight what he sees as new opportunities in foreign relations arising from international cooperation in the war against terror.

Presidential adviser Karen Hughes was quoted as saying that Mr Bush "sees this as a time of great opportunity" and would stress new co-operation with Russia, China and India.

One task facing the White House speech-writers is to find the president's true voice.

Unlike his predecessor, Mr Clinton, he is not a natural orator.

Rather, Mr Bush styles himself a plain speaker.

Nevertheless his last speech to Congress, 10 days after the 11 September attacks, drew wide praise - and his public speaking is widely regarded to have improved.