Analysis: Uphill struggle for Gore

Mr Gore is determined to battle to the very end

By US affairs analyst Gordon Corera

Al Gore's speech following certification of the Florida election result, was a plea to the American public for patience.

The vice-president knew that with the certification the political dynamic in this race for the White House changed once again.

And George W Bush undoubtedly has the upper hand now.

A number of law suits are still pending, but the real battle, as it has been all along, is the battle not in the courtroom but for public opinion.

Mr Bush's strategy is clear. He has said he is now the official winner and that Al Gore should end the nation's agony by conceding - a position which Democratic vice-presidential candidate Joe Lieberman has called "premature".

And there is some evidence that opinion is beginning to shift - a poll found six in 10 Americans said Mr Gore should concede.

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If this trend is confirmed and continues then it could be the end for Mr Gore.

Mr Gore's aim on Monday night was to explain to people why they should not accept an "official result", and why they should keep waiting and give him time to challenge the existing result.

"Ignoring votes means ignoring democracy itself," Mr Gore said hoping to summon the American public's attachment to democratic ideals and principles in his defence.

There are scenarios in which Al Gore could still wind his way to the White House but by the day they became harder to imagine materialising.

The US Supreme Court would need to rule after it meets on Friday that hand counts should be included in the Florida total.

But this would require the court intervening and perhaps overturning a state election - something it has never done before and which the relatively conservative body would be cautious of doing for fear of setting a precedent.

As Mr Bush said in his address, Mr Gore is contesting the outcome to an election - not just the counting procedure in coming to that result.

Even if the Supreme Court decision went his way, Mr Gore would have to hope he would pick up enough votes in the recount to overturn George W Bush's 537-vote lead.

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And even after that happened, Mr Gore would have to hope that the Florida State legislature wouldn't decide to pass its own law awarding the 25 electoral votes to Governor Bush.

And finally, the vice-president would have to hope that the Republican majority in Congress would not object to the final result when it is delivered to them on 5 January in Washington.

The problem facing America at the moment is that the vice-president is absolutely convinced that he should have won the election and be made president, while the Republicans are absolutely determined to stop him stealing (as they put it) a presidency they have legitimately and legally won.

Politics is often a test of wills more than anything else but now as the balance of forces tilts against him, the pressure is all on Al Gore.

President Clinton has himself urged patience saying: "It'll be over soon." But at the moment the danger is that it will be over too soon for his number two.