Political poker in Florida

George Bush is acting tough. He has the advantage.

By US affairs analyst Gordon Corera

The stakes are higher than in any card game, but as the Florida impasse continues, the calculations that George W Bush and Al Gore must make become ever more complex. They are looking more and more like two poker players in a face-off.

The recounts are hotly disputed

Mr Bush was dealt a better hand to start with - a lead, however slim, in the Florida vote and a short-lived declaration of victory nationally by the networks.

Mr Gore, with the weaker hand, has been hoping to have a few more rounds before each candidate has to show their final cards, in the hope that court decisions combined with recounts can improve his final position.

One wants to finish the game now knowing he is ahead; the other is willing to do whatever it takes to keep it going. And as with any really good game we have had plenty of accusations of cheating (in this case eating 'chads' rather than fixing the deck).

Cards on the table

Mr Bush has a number of aces up his sleeve.

• Even though the Florida Supreme Court ruling went against them, the Bush team knows it can pursue the matter in the federal court and even challenge the counting practices of local election officials.

• Bush advisor and former US secretary-of-state James Baker also hinted at one further option on Tuesday night. He said that the Florida state legislature (which is controlled by the Republicans) could, under an 1876 law, award the electoral college votes itself without reference to the vote.

• Further down the line, if he needs it, Mr Bush knows he will have slim Republican majorities in Congress when it convenes in early January to officially declare the results.

But for either Congress or a state legislature to award or dispute a state's electoral votes would be a political and constitutional escalation that could be dangerous for Mr Bush.

Gore's hand

Meanwhile Al Gore's only real aces are his victory in the popular vote and the fact that public opinion still favours a thorough rather than a fast count.

Al Gore is still in the game

But he knows that the longer he keeps going, the more impatient the public will become and the greater chance that his support will erode. He will need to make up the vote deficit with Mr Bush fast if he is going to do it at all.

As with any poker game, it is all about knowing when to fold. And as each new hand is dealt, by the Courts or the recounts, the two men have to make extremely tricky judgements.

If the recounts do not produce enough new votes for Mr Gore, he might just get up from the table and walk away.

Mr Bush looks as though he knows he has the better hand, but has not yet found a way to make it count.