Ivory Coast's uncertain future

Discontent with army rule boosted Gbagbo's support

By BBC News Online's Justin Pearce

Laurent Gbagbo's accession to the Ivory Coast presidency marks the end of a much-criticised period of military rule - but it does not signal the end of the country's ongoing political crisis.

Several commentators have drawn an analogy with Yugoslavia, where only a few weeks ago, an unpopular and autocratic president tried - and failed - to disregard the results of a popular vote.

But where Vojislav Kostunica succeeded by uniting the previously fractious Serbian opposition, the Ivorian opposition remains deeply divided.

Ouattara: Still out of the political race

Mr Gbagbo is an opposition leader of many years' standing. But in the past year, Alassane Ouattara has eclipsed him as Ivory Coast's most visible opposition figure.

The current political crisis in Ivory Coast can be traced back to the attempts last year by then-President Henri Konan Bédié to exclude Mr Ouattara from the presidential race.

Nationalism

Mr Bédié's government - invoking the idea of "ivorité" - Ivorian-ness - argued that foreign parentage prevented Mr Ouattara from being a suitable candidate for the presidency.

It is not in Gbagbo's interests to call another election

General Guei's coup on 24 December was initially interpreted as clearing the way for Mr Ouattara to be elected.

But the general soon turned against Mr Ouattara, passing new laws which had the effect of excluding him from standing for the presidency.

It was this that led to the recent election being in effect a two-horse race between General Guei and Mr Gbagbo - so it was Mr Gbagbo who benefited from the popular discontent with military rule.

Fresh election?

Mr Ouattara's supporters have called for a rerun of the election - the implication being that Mr Ouattara and other candidates excluded by the supreme court on technical grounds should be allowed to stand.

In an early sign of foreign concern over Mr Gbabgo's mandate, the South African Government also called for an "inclusive" election in Ivory Coast.

But such an election is unlikely to be in Mr Gbagbo's interest, and one of his aides has already dismissed calls for a new poll.

Although nominally a socialist, with a background in trade unionism under the government of the founding President Félix Houphouet-Boigny, Mr Gbagbo has recently embraced the idea of ivorité no less enthusiastically than Mr Bédié and General Guei before him.

After all, it was the sidelining of Mr Ouattara which enabled Mr Gbagbo to stage a political comeback, and it would not suit him to see Mr Ouattara re-establish himself.

Although Mr Ouattara's main support base is in the north, the past year has also seen lively pro-Ouattara demonstrations on the streets of Abidjan.

It is still not clear whether those people stood by Mr Ouattara in the run-up to the election and heeded his call for a boycott.

It is possible that many of those who once demonstrated in favour of Mr Ouattara were doing so out of a desire for political change rather than out of loyalty to Mr Ouattara himself - and this being the case, they would happily have swollen the ranks of the demonstrations which brought Mr Gbagbo to power.

Events of the past year - and in particular the past week - raised more questions about Ivory Coast's future than they have answered.