Page last updated at 14:47 GMT, Tuesday, 7 July 2009 15:47 UK

Debate: Is Nigeria a failed state?

As Nigeria enters its second decade of civilian rule facing myriad problems, the BBC's Focus on Africa magazine asks if the country is on its way to being a failed state.

Read the two conflicting opinions and then let us know what you think using the postform below.

YES - Ogaga Ifowodo

Ogaga Ifowodo
Ogaga Ifowodo is currently in the US doing his PhD

Ogaga Ifowodo is a lawyer and a poet whose book, The Oil Lamp, is about the Niger Delta crisis. He is currently completing a PhD at Cornell University in New York.

Most, if not all of the indices of failed states, declare Nigeria well on its way to joining that disreputable club.

Nigeria boasts a government unable to deliver basic social services.

It is plagued by corruption so endemic and monumental it is hard to separate it from state policy.

It lacks the capability or discipline to prevent threats to public safety and national integrity and is assailed by active challenges to its legitimacy.

The latest disaster of a re-run election in Ekiti state, meant to correct the errors of the first, proved an even greater show of shame.

While Nigerians, notoriously prickly in their nationalism, may loudly denounce any suggestions from abroad of the imminent disintegration of their country, they nonetheless admit the unflattering truth of this possibility to themselves and each other.

'Critically weak'

The inflammable Niger Delta, for long the booty of successive bands of political pirates and now also a seething swamp of untameable angst, points clearly to the dangerously frayed social fabric.

 in 1999
Is Sierra Leone now a stronger state than its one-time saviour Nigeria?

The Brookings Institution's index of state weakness ranks Nigeria 28 out of 141 developing countries and was co-authored by Susan Rice, President Barack Obama's top diplomat at the United Nations.

It places the self-styled "giant of Africa" in the honoured company of Somalia, Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Looking on the bright side, Nigeria happily sits on the cusp for countries termed "critically weak" as opposed to the merely "weak" states.

But if the Brookings Institution takes a kind view of Nigeria, the American Fund for Peace, a research body, thinks otherwise.

In its 2008 index of failed states, Nigeria is only two short rungs away from being in the same category as Somalia and Zimbabwe.

Ironically, Nigeria has to look up the ladder at Sierra Leone and Liberia, two countries she spared no expense of life, limb and hard currency to bring out of civil wars to restore to democracy.

Yet none of this goes to the heart of the problem. For to speak of Nigeria as a failed state is, in a sense, to put the cart before the horse.

'Geographical expression'

Never having been a nation to start with, the question of a legitimate state to handle her affairs proves redundant.

We must therefore, open the dusty pages of history for the radical cause of Nigeria's state of distress and there we will find that what we have grown accustomed to calling a nation deserving of a state is, to quote one of her "founding fathers", "a mere geographical expression."

Nigeria is not a nation, the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo declared with characteristic forthrightness more than a decade before nominal independence from Britain.

Man carrying sewing machine
Life remains tough for most Nigerians
For saying the unsaid and for championing constitutional federalism along the lines of Nigeria's multitude of ethnic groups, Mr Awolowo was labelled a tribalist and unjustly maligned until his death in 1987.

The unwillingness to grapple with the trauma of Nigeria's stillbirth as a nation is the great political unconscious - the implacable repressed - that returns at will to haunt and mock the state of denial.

This repressed truth, being political, hides as it were in the open. It can be seen in the headlines and by-lines of our newspapers.

It is volubly declaimed in bars and every public forum where two or more Nigerians are gathered.

It defines the so-called "national question", so cacophonous that the prodigious expense of political and psychological energy needed by Nigeria's self-appointed rulers to repress it produces such frightful spectacles as compel the verdict of a failed or rapidly failing state.

A mere geographical expression indeed, or, as another "founding father" preferred to put it, "the mistake of 1914."

That was the fateful year the British colonial administrator, Lord Frederick Lugard, merged by colonial fiat northern and southern protectorates and the colony of Lagos to form Nigeria.

Meaning, "people of the [lower] Niger area", it was as if the hallowed river possessed the magic to transform disparate denizens within its acceptable radius into nationhood by mere eponymous naming.

This would be deemed superstitious in any other context but the colonial.

Unfortunately, this mistake has yet to be acknowledged, for if nations are "imagined communities" as Professor Benedict Anderson said in his book of the same name, Nigeria was clearly unimagined by its would-be citizens and perhaps unimaginable for very long in its current state of existence.

NO - Waziri Haruna Ahmadu

Waziri Haruna Ahmadu
Waziri Haruna Ahmadu advises President Yar'Adua

Waziri Haruna Ahmadu, a former Health and Agriculture Secretary, is an agribusiness consultant working with the chief economic adviser to Nigerian President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua

It is obvious, all the signs of a state heading for failure - where a constitutional authority increasingly shows an inability to provide basic services like guaranteeing security to life and property, maintenance of economic and social services, infrastructure and food security - are not evident.

On the contrary, for the first time in the country's history, Nigeria is attempting to address its economic and social infrastructure inadequacies.

The economy has never been more open to new investors and the government recognises the imperative for private-sector investments in critical infrastructure such as power, transportation and energy.

Public anxiety is understandable when, after two years of taking over from the previous administration, little appears to have been achieved in fulfilling campaign promises.

But it has also to be understood that this administration had to start from scratch when it took office.

Rising income

Parliamentary investigations and discoveries by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission have recently revealed that the previous administration had wasted a substantial part of its eight years in power doing little while the country's critical infrastructure continued to decay.

Owing to the current administration's new economic management style, a gross domestic product growth of 6.41% in 2008 compares well with other economies around the world.

The current drivers of growth in the Nigerian economy are from the non-oil and gas sector.

Nigerian Naira, (NGN) being counted in an exchange
Nigeria's foreign reserves have grown by around $10 billion

Even before, expected benefits from ongoing efforts at transforming the power and transportation sectors come to fruition, per-capita income of Nigerians has begun to increase, rising by 25% this past year.

Meanwhile, the country's foreign reserves have grown from $42.3 billion in 2006 to $53 billion by the end of 2008.

This in spite of the crisis in the international price of crude oil, the country's major foreign-exchange earner.

To increase power generation and enhance industry and domestic consumption, $1.6 billion has been set aside by the government in its 2009 budget.

This will complement private-sector investments in constructing a nationwide gas grid for provision to new power plants across the country, as well as to industries that consume gas as raw material.

Food supply in Nigeria has remained resilient, and the government has strengthened the sector through the provision of $1.6 billion for the establishment of infrastructure that would attract new investments.

It has also given considerable funding to provide concessionary credit to increase output and the create new jobs.

Nigeria's health and social services sector may be suffering from infrastructure inadequacies, but it remains functional, providing services to the country's huge population.

Nigeria's medical schools train some of the best personnel on the continent and in numbers that guarantee sustainable development of the system for decades to come.

There are more functional tertiary institutions in Nigeria than in any other African country, and the country participates in the highest levels of international research.

There are inadequacies, of course, but not at the levels found in most developing countries.

Democratic governance

Lately, there has been a lot in the Nigerian media about operations by the Federal Military Joint Task Force to check the increasingly serious criminal activity in the creeks of the Niger Delta, akin to a low-level insurgency.

The federal government earlier frowned at the prospect of dealing with the mercenary "militants" through purely military means because of the inevitable collateral impact on the civilian population.

A health worker gives a child an oral polio vaccine in Kano, Nigeria
Nigeria health service works, Mr Ahmadu says

However, current damage to oil production infrastructure and the threat to people's security living and working in the area necessitated resorting to military action.

In just a few days government resolved to remove the threat.

The consequent capture and destruction of several militant camps with minimal effort laid to rest the question hanging over the government's ability to deal with criminality and the threat to security anywhere in the country.

Contrary to expectations of local critics, an electoral reform bill is with the National Assembly for its debate and passage into law.

The fact that political opponents from both within and outside the ruling People's Democratic Party continue to criticise government-sponsored electoral reforms as either not enough or gone too far is an indication of how alive and well the system of democratic governance is in the country.

The spate of reversals of electoral mandates by courts all over the country also shows that the country's justice system remains strong and functional.

Nigeria is an active member of the international community and participates in all matters that concern her.

The country continues to play an active part in international peacekeeping, and Nigeria's leadership role in several multilateral organisations makes us an important partner for many countries.

The significance of constructive criticism of its efforts and performance has not been lost on the current federal government, as evidenced by the recent presidential directive for ministers and heads of government agencies to open up to the press on their work.

Nigeria is, therefore, far from being a failed state.

Do you believe Nigeria is on its way to becoming a failed state? BBC News readers have been sending us their reaction to the story.

No Nigeria is not yet a failed state. The only problem with Nigeria, is unprepared, poor and bad leaders. All those who have ruled Nigeria are dealers not leaders. Most of Nigerian politicians, had no day jobs before they entered politics. Politics in Nigeria, has been turned to big business and big business attracts the mafia and other types of criminals. The only political players in Nigeria are those who engage in do or die politics. They are prepared to go to any length to take power, even assassinations, murder, cultism, etc. For this reason no decent person, with good reputation, wants to engage in Nigerian politics. It was confirmed by one of the Senators, Senator Aliu a former AIG and he was in charge of criminal investigation, before venturing into politics. He said it in public that, he had personally investigated a lot of his colleagues, for serious criminal offences when he was a police chief. This mater was swept under the carpet by the Senate and the House of Representatives. We have not heard about it again.
Patrick Agbobu, London, UK

This is a very sensitive subject among Nigerians. Majority of Nigerians would through anger and frustration conclude Nigeria is a failed state. However there is a fine line between a failed Country and failed leadership. Can i use this opportunity to request that BBC rephrase that question by asking have our leaders failed in their obligation to lead this great Country or have the Country failed as a Nation?. I am sure BBC would get unbiased and realistic answers from Nigerians inside and outside. In my humble opinion Nigeria as a Nation is not a failed State for numerous reasons, rather our Leaders as far back as i can remember have failed in their obligation to move this GREAT Country forward economically, socially in order to take its rightful place in Africa and the World.
Umar Abanifi, UK

To Edobaye, Toronto, Canada: I strongly disagree with your opinion that we should be hopeful. Those that live on hope, die fasting. You need to tell us when you are going back to Nigeria to be part of that hope. We have enough preachers and are tired of excuses. People who left Nigeria when the "initial touch" was there do not realize what people back home suffer. Some of us ran away because of Kidnapping. You may need to try that your hopeful approach by visiting home at Christmas with a luxury car and some money and let's here your sermon on hope afterwards. Its shameful we slaughter basic truth on the alter of pride, sentiments and excuses.
Azunna Chuks, Manchester, UK

I don't think we could be called a failed state just YET but we are definitely on a downward spiral hurtling towards that. I have faith though that our generation will prop us up and at least begin the process of getting us back in the right direction. I am continually pleasantly surprised at how passionate people are about doing just that. The one thing we need to do now is unite and get rid off all the bad eggs.
Ndidi Ifeacho, London England

Put aside the political mumbo-jumbo. A man that deceives himself is bound for doom! Nigeria has and is still a failed state, and I call for all Nigerians to steer her from self-destruction. Amalgamation is not the problem, most countries were amalgamated, United States for example. Obafemi Awolowo was right, Constitutional Federalism needs to be practised, Unitary System of government is a one man show which empowers the elected against the state! There's a clear difference between having the most tertiary institutions and having function tertiary the saying goes: 'A living dog is better than a dead lion.'
Rawly, Toronto

To say that Nigeria is a failed state is an overstatement, but to say that we have not failed so far is an understatement. If you have a child who cannot walk at the age of three (with due respect to all the disabled in these category) the parents will start to take some remedial action. We cannot blame anyone for our inaction after 49 years of independence. We know our problems inside out. Both the Civilian and the Military that ruled in the past and the present politicians in power know our problems. They all failed to take action. Until the politicians - except the Lagos State Governor - His Excellency Fashola - are able to take unselfish bold steps to address our problems we will continue to reel in our miseries. If a state governor like Fashola could turn things around within a short time in office, the Federal Government with all the resources at its disposal could miraculously do better in a term of office. I will agree that Nigeria is a failed state if we cannot have a fair election at the end of this government in office.
O Legbe, London

Waziri Ahmadu speaks like the typical politician who has no clue about what the common man is going through. His comments are quite frankly very upsetting and supports the conclusion that Nigeria's leaders must be living on a different planet. Nigeria is on a slippery slope caused by politicians hiding their heads in the sand and focussing on taking away the livelihoods of the people they are supposed to be helping. Unless we have leaders who walk the walk and not just talk, we will indeed achieve the 'failed-state' status. Mr Ahmadu, wake up and smell the coffee!!
Chibuzo Okoro, Basingstoke, UK

We are quick to resort to name-calling and like the proverbial ostrich bury our head in the sand! This is a debate. Stop the name-calling. Nobody is an enemy of Nigeria. We all want the best for our motherland. However, the truth most be told. If Nigeria has such 'excellent medical centres', why do the Nigeria elites - by the way I use the word elite loosely, (they became elite by looting our coffers) - travel overseas for medical check-up? The same elites build fortresses they call homes and live in 'prison' afraid of the armed robbers and kidnappers. The same elite pollutes the air with their generators, because the power sector is nonexistent. They dig their own boreholes for water; send their children to overseas schools, and on and on. Please, telling the truth about our beloved country is more patriotic. I expect a civil debate.
Kelechi, Texas

BBC Please stop interviewing Nigerian Government agents because they will always give you the view of the government or do you expect otherwise. Talk to the grassroots, the masses and you will unearth the true state of the Nation. Having said that, I would like to say that to compare Nigeria with countries like Zimbabwe, Sierra Leone etc is insulting and shows how this analysis is skewed towards disgracing our country. Nigeria still has a platform better than some of the East European countries. I discussed with a Latvian friend last night and he also complained about the light problem they are having. that does not mean the country is a failed state. Nigerians need to work hard especially to curb corruption. But our big European nations and US should also work hard to stop stolen money from crossing their border. It takes two to tango.
Uzozie Chidume, Leicester, UK

When I was in primary school, My father (a farmer) was able to pay my school fees and had a good bicycle. Today, a university graduate in Nigeria cannot afford to buy toilet soap. If that is not a sign of failed state, I don't know what is.
Chukwuyere Anyandu, Imo state NIGERIA

While I do not like mischievous Luggard's Amalgamation of 1914, that event alone is not responsible for our problems in Nigeria. The country is in trouble owing to massive corruption and misgovernance, which cut across ethnic lines. Give Nigerians free and fair elections and the country will take off like a rocket to Heaven! A system that consistently props up mediocrity with impunity will achieve excellence!
Victor Aimiuwu, Xenia, USA

Nigeria is a sham a mockery, 2009 still cannot provide electricity to their citizens. Infrastructure is lacking. 60 million Nigerians own generators. No functional civil service. Failed they are doomed if care is not taken it is a joke. Facts are facts. A total joke.
Gee, Atlanta USA

Well, Nigerians would never admit to recognise their country as a failed state. The only unfortunate thing to ever happen over the last 25 years is that the people have grown up independent of govt. By that, the govt lacked moral authority to govern. However, I see this as a great opportunity for an individual who wants to make a name for himself. The country has never had a real hero. Those who we praise are in my opinion, mere regional heroes. Nigeria, lets rise to this challenge and rewrite history. Lets force a new headline in the BBC saying "the Nigerian miracle". But this will come through hard work, good thinking and a strong strategic direction for the country. We are not all corrupt. Let's make that change the country really need today.
Julius, UK

The fundamental problem with Nigeria is equity, Justice and corruption. We should should not also forget poor infrastructures. We need to punish evil and reward good, as long as there is inequality in equity and justice in the system, there will always be a problem in Nigeria.
Tony Ehimare, New York, USA

I completely agree with Mr Waziri Haruna Ahmadu on his view that Nigeria is not a failed state. I do not want to repeat all the reasons Mr Waziri gave because he said it all eloquently. It is insulting and rude to classify Nigeria with other countries like Somalia, Zimbabwe etc. Nigeria has institutions and over 32 University teaching hospitals and abundance of skilled people. Its financial institutions ranked among the top 500 in the world. Fellow countrymen, let be hopeful. Let be supportive of the government. Let be mindful of evil forces like the militants and its allies who want to destroy the country. I hope our government will continue its paths to reform and strengthen our institutions. Thanks
Edobaye, Toronto, Canada

Not really, Nigeria appears to be a failed state at the moment but change is coming to Nigeria. If the government can address basic conditions of infrastructures i.e. power and roads. Every other things will fall in place. For us to be blaming the amalgamation of Northern and Southern Nigeria as the reason for our failure is no "EXCUSE" for how long should we continue to dwell on 1914 issue? On the issue of Niger Delta the militants had legitimate course but has turned the issue into criminality. For instance, the so called militant leaders stealing Oil why can't they use the money from the Oil theft to develop there community instead of using it to kill each other? Don't get me wrong the present administration/PDP has failed Nigerians.
Sola Taiwo, Seattle, WA

I don't see any reason for this debate, we always blame someone else for our calamities in Nigeria, the truth is Nigeria is more than failure, our rulers don't believe they are Nigerians, if they do, let them live as a commom man, and see how suffer dey for Nigeria undeground. Never blame the west. My father says only a bastard will point is fathers house with a left hand, and that's how you can best díscibe our Nigerian leaders. From head to toe, come rain fall sun shine, they are all thiefs. Thats the truth.
JONATHAN JAMES, Sundsvall, Sweden

I can see Ogaga remains as pessimistic as he was during my undergraduate days at Cornell. Is he drawing his conclusions from news reports filtered by the 'international' media or does he visit home that often? I'd like Haruna to take me to the working health centres and see him receive treatment at the same location. I'd be better convinced that he is not a propaganda tool when he is no longer working for the government in power. The BBC needs to do get people living in the country who are farther away from positions of privilege and the corridors of power to give their own views on Nigeria. In my opinion, Nigeria is not quite yet a failed state. The use of force still remains with state institutions and investors continue to see a stable enough outlook to invest in the economy. But with the current rate of infrastructure decline, increase in geographical spread of organised crime (militants) and growing disregard for the rule of law by the citizens and government alike... that day is closer than we think.
Seun, Lagos, Nigeria

I think the BBC in trying to be balanced has committed a great disservice to its subscribers. Why put an objective, intellectual and straightforward analysis side by side with somebody who is part and parcel of the problem. I wonder which Nigeria Mr Waziri is talking about, the confines of Aso Rock or the Nigeria with persistent power failure, a lack of basic security, a Nigeria of the disenfranchised, a collapsed education sector etc. How can investors be encouraged to pump millions of money into a system that just does not make sense? Von Robert Edomi, London

It is already a failed state. What we are enjoying today in Nigeria was built by the army. No security, no power, no roads, no hospitals for the poor, armed robbery, kidnapping, bribery and no good drinking water for the poor.
Rob Obiekwe, Atlanta, USA

How else do you expect Mr Waziri Haruna Ahmadu to rate Nigeria, when he is currently employed by the present administration of "baba go slow", if he dare say anything negative, 24hrs interval is just too much for his job to be terminated... you BBC people should direct your interviews to average men on the street or public sector personals not government official... period!!
Okoro Johnson, Jonkoping, Sweden

If you've ever lived in a failed state, you will tread carefully before using that word. Try living in Iraq; Somalia; Afghanistan or even Mexico. In my opinion it is the enemies of Nigeria that are so keen on using that word simply because that is what they wish for the Country. So Nigerians Watch Out!
Dele Olubodun, London

Truly, Nigeria for me, is a failed state. We will continue to suffer until we collectively rise up for change as we have seen in Ghana, USA and Iran. Until then, we can only buckle our shoes for the road to failure is far and endless.
Chinedu Onyewuenyi, Abuja, Nigeria

Am not surprised Mr Ahmadu says it's not failed, what do you expect, check his profile - 'former Health and Agriculture Secretary, is an agribusiness consultant working with the chief economic adviser to Nigerian President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua'. A Niger Delta man will not say that, because the owner of the resources are not benefiting from it, rather its other people....

Nigeria is not a fail state and it will never be a fail state. The current streams of problems facing the nation are usual for any nation undergoing development. Those people saying Nigeria is a fail nation are people with no hope and evil perpetrators.
Abdulmuhsin Muhammad Adeniyi, Ijofin, Nigeria

The joining of the northern and southern protectorates with Lagos in 1914 by the British colonialists might be the foundation of our problems, but that does not mean we could not have risen as a nation if we worked hard at it. The main problem is corruption, corruption and corruption. Corruption has so much taken over every fabric of our lives that every average Nigerian is corrupt. Everyday, we hear of billions of naira sometimes even billions of dollars being misappropriated, embezzled, missing or not accounted for. There needs to be a re-alignment of people's mindset. There's needs to be accountability and transparency. Controls must be put in place to for stall future occurrence. The only unfortunate situation I foresee is that the problem cannot be solved in a short period of time. It will take years of more suffering by Nigerians before any meaningful change can take place, That is even if the government can have the clout and courage to carry out the necessary reforms. God bless Nigeria
Abiola Oni, Lagos, Nigeria

YES! As long as the western world continue to support and encourage the corrupt rulers. After all, the majority of the embezzled money are siphoned to banks abroad largely in the western countries. And such money are being taxed and used up by the western countries. They in turn loan out the money to us and tell us what to do with the money on the so called International Policy. However, the positive thinking youths are doing all they can to redeem the country from becoming a failed state.
Solomon, Singapore

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