No choice for Zimbabwe's Tsvangirai

By Peter Greste
BBC News, Johannesburg

The announcement by the Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai that he will take part in the presidential run-off is hardly surprising.

Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai said the MDC won the vote outright

The party has always claimed an outright victory in the March election, and insisted that there was no need for a second round.

But in reality, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) had little choice.

To announce a boycott would have handed victory to President Robert Mugabe by default, and quite possibly spelt the end of the MDC as a political force in Zimbabwe.

As Mr Tsvangirai told a news conference in Pretoria, South Africa, if he decided not to take part, his supporters would have felt "betrayed".

"I am ready and the people are ready for the final round," he said.

MDC demands

In agreeing to contest the election, the MDC has made a calculated gamble that it can steam-roll its way through any attempts to rig the poll by sheer weight of numbers.

The party clearly believes it has majority support.

According to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, Morgan Tsvangirai won 47.9% of the vote, with Robert Mugabe taking 43.2%.

When you have a wedding, you invite your friends - you don't invite your wife's ex-boyfriend Bright Matonga Deputy information minister

By the MDC's own count, its leader won 50.3% - hardly a resounding endorsement.

The MDC can probably depend on the support of many of the 9% or so of voters who backed the third-placed Simba Makoni.

But more importantly, some analysts believe that while the ruling Zanu-PF party has cowed many of the MDC's supporters with its campaign of violence, the sheer scale of the attacks has driven even more voters into the arms of the opposition.

And the fact that Zanu-PF officially lost control of parliament for the first time in its history has shown voters that the great party of liberation can, in fact, be beaten.

That is why the MDC has demanded the presence of international observers as well as foreign media and even peacekeepers to try to tamp down the level of violence that otherwise seems set to rise as the campaign continues.

'Wedding invitations'

Zimbabwe's Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa appeared to dismiss the MDC's demands, but he still held the door open by saying "the run-off will be held within the framework of the constitution and the electoral laws. There will be no conditionalities outside this framework."

The form of words leaves room for some compromise - few of the MDC's conditions would be in breach of the law.

Robert Mugabe has ruled Zimbabwe for close to 30 years

But Zanu-PF has repeatedly said it would not invite international observers from countries or organisations that have previously criticised its handling of elections, and which it accuses of covertly supporting the MDC.

In the rather colourful words of the deputy information minister Bright Matonga: "When you have a wedding, you invite your friends. You don't invite your wife's ex-boyfriend."

The government has also said it has no interest in hosting international media organisations which it accuses of supporting British attempts to reclaim control of Zimbabwe using "MDC proxies".

It is also highly unlikely to accept peacekeeping forces that would be seen as threatening Zimbabwe's sovereignty - the defence of which the government has repeatedly said lies at the very heart of this political struggle.

Little appetite

Even so, the fact that the MDC has now formally agreed to take part, throws the focus back onto the government.

There is likely to be considerable pressure on Harare to agree to greater international oversight of the elections, if not from the UN, at least from the African Union and other African civil society organisations.

There will also be growing calls for an end to the violence - something the government has denied any involvement in.

MDC supporters say there has been an orchestrated campaign of violence

But before any elections can take place, the Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZEC) must first announce a date.

According to the law, the second round of voting must take place within three weeks "of the previous election".

The ZEC interprets that to mean within three weeks of the day it announced the results.

It made that announcement on 2 May, although its chairman has not yet formally announced the date and he has hinted that it could take up to a year if the conditions are not right for a free and fair run-off.

There remains speculation that the two sides are negotiating through intermediaries to establish a government of national unity, and that Zimbabwe may never actually get to a run-off vote.

Certainly neither side seems to have an appetite for another campaign, and there are powerful incentives to find a negotiated settlement.

As long as the ZEC holds back from naming a day for the poll, the prospect of some form of government of national unity remains a prospect.

But until then, both sides appear to be preparing for a struggle for control of Zimbabwe that seems likely to be as physical as it is political.