Zanu-PF: Ready to abandon Mugabe?

By George Alagiah
BBC News

"Robert Mugabe has now become a bargaining chip" in this whole process.

The future of Robert Mugabe and the Zanu-PF are no longer intertwined

Those words, once unthinkable, were uttered by a one-time supporter of the ruling Zanu-PF and now a member of one of the opposition parties in Zimbabwe.

He was referring to the frenetic bargaining and deal-making that is apparently taking place in the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, as politicians and the military top brass adjust to the post election political scene.

For the first time in 28 years Zanu-PF lost its majority in the lower house of parliament.

That is why the man who for so long symbolised the liberation struggle and ruled supreme is now being thought of as expendable by some within the party.

'Virtually invisible'

The Thursday edition of the state-owned Herald newspaper is a case in point.

There is barely a mention of the president in it.

There was a time when it when editors could not put the paper to bed without a eulogy to Robert Mugabe.

The man himself has been virtually invisible since last Saturday's polls.

Not surprising that his brief appearance on Zimbabwean television on Thursday has itself become news.

The future of Zanu-PF and the future of Robert Mugabe, for so long one and the same, are now two separate issues.

There are those within the party who would apparently ditch the president if it meant survival of the party as a political force.

For sure they will want as graceful and elegant an exit for the "old man" as he is referred to as a mark of respect but it is my understanding that in a choice between president and party it is the party that will win.

That is what one faction within the party want - we can call them the reformers though in the Zanu-PF context that is a relative term, many are old, established faces within the party.

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They are not necessarily driven by a desire to rekindle the party of old but to protect the organisation that has given them so much - a lifestyle of some comfort and a social status to match.

In this scenario, someone like Simba Makoni - who stood as an independent candidate for the presidency but was once Mr Mugabe's finance minister - would be persuaded to re-join the fold and given a plum job.

His return to the party would lend credibility to claims that the party has indeed changed its spots.

Their problem is that the country looks as if it might be heading for a second round run-off between the top two presidential candidates in the first round - Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.

Though no official results have been published, it seems the country is being prepared for such a contest - the Herald has touted it and Zanu-PF's spokesman Bright Matonga has said the party is ready to unleash its full might in a run-off.

Legally, only Robert Mugabe can contest the run-off.

Rough ride

How do you simultaneously support him in a run-off and also prepare the ground to ditch him?

Others in the party have no such conundrum - let's call them the hawks.

They think the party could win a run-off with Mr Mugabe in charge.

If they get the better of the internal tussle expect to see Zanu-PF deploy all its tools - everything from media dominance to thuggery - in an all-out effort to put the presidency beyond the reach of Mr Tsvangirai.

If there is a second round Zimbabweans may be heading for a rough ride indeed.

We are, of course, some way off a second round.

First, the Election Commission has to publish the presidential results - something it has signally failed to do - and the opposition has to accept them.

On Thursday a spokesman for the MDC said it would not accept a second round without careful scrutiny of the results.