Analysis: The Savimbi factor

Jonas Savimbi has been losing support

By Lara Pawson in Luanda

Many believe that the ageing Unita rebel leader, Jonas Savimbi, holds the key to ending Angola's long-standing conflict.

As long as he has been able to conduct his forces and maintain support both within and outside the country, peace has been unobtainable.

But during the last eight years or so Jonas Savimbi has lost vital foreign support from allies, such as the United States and the former apartheid South African government.

He has also been deserted by some of his key generals.

Churchill a hero

It is rumoured that one of Jonas Savimbi's heroes is Winston Churchill, who became British prime minister at the age of 65.

Doctor Savimbi, who grew up in the town of Andulo, was 65 last August.

Any hopes he may have had of leading Angola this year must presumably have faded.

One of his close associates says Dr Savimbi accepted some years back that he would never take over from President Jose Eduardo dos Santos.

Impeccable sources insist that, during the past few months, Dr Savimbi has lowered his goal to vice-president of Angola, with executive power over certain ministries.

But even that may remain out of reach.

The Angolan army has recently established a base in eastern Moxico province, where Dr Savimbi is rumoured to be based.

Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos

In Luanda, some believe the Unita leader may not live much longer if Angola's Chief of Staff, General Joao de Matos, achieves his alleged goal to capture and even kill his number one enemy.

But many more observers take stock of Dr Savimbi's persona.

Maoist tactics

His capacity to appear mysterious almost to the point of formlessness has long enable him and thousands of Unita troops to elude the enemy.

Despite his age, his greatest skill is his effective Maoist guerrilla strategy.

It is also worth bearing in mind the words of a senior Unita source who commented recently: "Never before have I been so convinced that Dr Savimbi is fighting for all the right reasons."

It indeed remains the case that the enigmatic rebel leader has maintained a great number of admirers.

How and why may say more about the Angolan government, viewed by critics as one of the most corrupt in Africa, than it does about Dr Savimbi himself.