Sudan's Darfur deal a distant dream

By Jonah Fisher
BBC News, Sirte, Libya

The prospects of a deal to end the four-and-a-half year war in Sudan's Darfur region appear bleak.

Talks are due to start in Libyan city of Sirte on Saturday, but violence continues on the ground and several key rebel movements are set to boycott discussions.

The international community is impatient. The rebels should also be impatient to end the suffering of their people AU envoy Salim Ahmed Salim

However, mediators say the opening ceremony will definitely go ahead and that they are hoping to persuade other rebels to join at a later date.

Throughout this year envoys from the African Union (AU) and the United Nations have been working together to try to push Darfur's many rebel movements towards a common negotiating position.

The ultimate aim has been new talks with Khartoum.

Some rebels made it clear from the outset that they were not interested.

Abdul Wahid el-Nur, the Paris-based founder of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), has consistently said he will not attend until there is security on the ground.

Meanwhile, Darfur's other rebels have spent most of the last 18 months falling out with each other.

At the start of the Darfur uprising in 2003 there were two rebel movements the SLA and the Justice and Equality Movement (Jem). Now, there are at least 12.

Common position

In an effort to bring the different factions together, the AU and UN envoys travelled repeatedly to Darfur to speak to the rebel commanders.

Rebels from Darfur have split into at least 12 factions

At the rebels' request they hosted a meeting in Tanzania where some common positions were agreed.

The rebels announced they were willing to attend talks with the government within three months.

A date was set and the location in Libya confirmed a few weeks later.

But as the date for talks has approached the level of violence in Darfur has risen and most of the rebels have pulled out of the talks.

Many of them called for a delay to allow for more internal consultations. Under pressure from Washington and London, the mediators refused.

"The international community is impatient," Salim Ahmed Salim, the AU envoy says.

"The rebels should also be impatient to end the suffering of their people."

The Janjaweed are one of the problems and must be part of the solution Sudan analyst Julie Flint

Critics of the mediators say despite their best efforts they have omitted a crucial group: the Arab militia commonly known as the Janjaweed.

Perpetrators of the war's worst atrocities, they are responsible for torching hundreds of villages and killing tens of thousands of people.

"The Janjaweed are one of the problems and must be part of the solution," Julie Flint, a Sudan analyst says.

"The Arabs of Darfur are marginalised almost to the point of exclusion from the peace process."

Lessons

Darfur has, of course, already had one peace process, and the wreckage of the failed agreement of 2006 further complicates discussions.

More than 2m people have fled their homes since the conflict began

Signed by only one rebel group - the SLA under Minni Minnawi - under intense pressure from the United States and the United Kingdom, that deal remains unimplemented.

Mr Minnawi became senior assistant to the President Omar al-Bashir, but has found himself marginalised and humiliated by his supposed partners in Khartoum.

As new talks and deadlines approach Jan Pronk, the Dutch former head of the UN Mission in Sudan, says lessons have not been learnt.

"The biggest mistake has already been made which is to repeat the format of the (2006) Abuja talks including an unrealistic deadline," he says.

If meaningful talks do begin, Khartoum says the contents of the 2006 deal - the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) - are not up for discussion.

But Mr Pronk, a key figure in the talks which lead to the DPA, says it is now time for a "full renegotiation" of that pact.

That means all the key areas of security, wealth and power sharing being explored again.

With the ruling party in Khartoum unwilling to give up its majority stake in Darfur's local government - it could once again prove a major sticking point.

Heart of the matter

At the heart of Sudan's many conflicts is a recurring problem - and it hangs like a dark cloud over these peace talks.

The AU has struggled to contain the violence

During its 50 years of independence from the UK Sudan has shown little appetite for sharing either wealth or power with its regions.

Sudanese from the south, the east and now the west (Darfur) have all fought wars of varying intensity calling for a greater stake in their own country.

But power has remained in the hands of a small central Sudanese elite and often, as at present, in the hands of a military leader.

The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) ended two decades of war between the north and south and was supposed to be the blueprint for any solution to Darfur's problems.

Why should the rebels join a government that is collapsing? Author Alex de Waal

It gave southerners control over their own affairs and a stake in central government.

Just two years on it now teeters on the brink of collapse.

Southern Sudanese politicians complain that the ministerial jobs they were given in Khartoum came with no decision-making power.

Having seen what happened to fellow Darfurian Minni Minnawi and at the CPA's problems, few would begrudge the rebels a few doubts about Khartoum's intentions.

"There is no prospect of a deal for Darfur unless the CPA is on track," says Alex de Waal, an author of several books on the region.

"Why should the rebels join a government that is collapsing?"

Christmas

Discussions now seem set to begin, with or without the main rebel commanders.

After two days of speeches workshops will be held to familiarise the delegates with the concepts and issues that they will need to address.

For the talks to have any meaning - leaders who wield real influence in Darfur both in terms of military power and popular support will have to be persuaded to attend.

Christmas has been mentioned as a possible end but few are expecting a result by then.

"These talks are a process which we have to start, but real negotiations can only begin when the key rebel commanders decide to come," Mr Salim says.

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The answers to questions you put to six Darfur camp residents will be published later on Friday. Read about their lives.