Will the Ivorian peace deal work?

By James Copnall
BBC News, Ouagadougou

Mr Gbagbo has been opposed by northern rebels since 2002

Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo and the leader of the New Forces rebels, Guillaume Soro, have signed an accord in Ouagadougou.

The deal, which was brokered and co-signed by the President of Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaore, is the latest attempt to end the Ivorian civil war.

The belligerent parties have agreed to a detailed timetable which should see them form a joint army, reunify the country and go to elections in 10 months' time.

But many accords have failed in the last few years, and the country remains divided, with the New Forces controlling the northern half of the country they seized four years ago.

So will this deal work?

Despite the mountains of paperwork they have signed, Ivorian politicians have rarely respected their promises.

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The Ouagadougou accord follows in the lengthy paper trail of Linas Marcoussis, Accra 1, 2 and 3, and two Pretoria accords, to name just the major agreements.

So the odds appear stacked against Ouagadougou - or should that be Ouagadougou 1? - based purely on recent history.

Nevertheless, there are reasons for a certain guarded optimism.

For a start, the accord has a detailed timetable. It also seems to have found solutions to some touchy subjects, like the re-organisation of the army and the identification programme, which was discontinued last year when militant supporters of Mr Gbagbo violently stopped it.

The processes for obtaining an electoral card are laid out in detail, too. Above all, the agreement was reached following direct talks between Mr Gbagbo's camp and senior officials from the New Forces.

All previous agreements have involved numerous other parties, from Ivorian opposition leaders to French politicians to UN officials.

These talks involved only the belligerent parties, and the Burkinabe negotiators. Mr Gbagbo said this was an Ivorian solution to an Ivorian problem.

Both sides cannot claim this was a deal imposed by outsiders.

'Strengthening their hands'

However, it would be premature to ink a date for the elections into the calendar. Certain areas, like the powers the new, un-named, prime minister will have are undefined.

Also the presidential elections have been postponed twice, each time because the very people who are now talking up the agreement, Mr Gbagbo and Mr Soro, stalled when it mattered most.

Both are content with their current situation, and would risk a lot if the Ouagadougou accord was put into action in full.

Already there has been speculation that the president and his enemy have signed a secret deal.

Certainly they have all but excluded the UN and the Ivorian opposition from the peace process, strengthening both their hands.

So Mr Gbagbo and Mr Soro will almost certainly benefit from this agreement. It remains to be seen if the same is true for Ivory Coast as whole.