Somali conflict leaves region unstable

By Martin Plaut
BBC Africa analyst

Ethiopia's involvement in Somalia has angered many in the region

With the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, announcing that he is withdrawing a third of his troops from Somalia, the first phase of the conflict is now drawing to a close.

The African Union will discuss the Somali crisis at its summit which opens in Addis Ababa on Monday.

They are likely to support efforts to provide an African peacekeeping force for the country.

But a month after the Ethiopians sent tanks and men to oust the Islamists from Somalia, the region is still far from stable.

The Ethiopian prime minister no doubt believes he has a good deal to celebrate.

His troops are beginning to pull out.

Eritrea backed Somalia's Islamists, and has suffered a bloody nose after their hold on Mogadishu was broken

The Islamists have been routed and are on the run. The Somali capital, Mogadishu, is still experiencing regular guerrilla attacks but these are - so far - on a relatively small scale.

Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf has moved into the capital and is speaking to various clan elders, even if he has ruled out doing a deal with Islamic moderates as the Americans have been pushing him to do.

From the Ethiopian perspective - so far so good.

Border dispute rumbles

But to the north there are still rumblings of an older war.

The dispute with Eritrea over its border with Ethiopia is still unresolved.

Eritrea backed Somalia's Islamists, and has suffered a bloody nose after their hold on Mogadishu was broken.

Angry and isolated, the Eritrean President, Isaias Afewerki, has been strengthening his troop presence along the Ethiopian border.

If tension in Somalia subsides, the Ethiopia-Eritrea dispute could be transferred to their common border

In its latest assessment, the United Nations warned of the danger posed by what it called the "continued and increasing presence of Eritrean troops and heavy military equipment" inside the 25km-wide temporary security zone that runs along the border.

The zone is supposed to be demilitarised. Now it is full of troops.

The UN has repeatedly said that this could lead to a renewal of hostilities.

If tension in Somalia subsides, the Ethiopia-Eritrea dispute could be transferred to their common border.