Drought to affect Kenya for years

Locals fear they could soon die, like their cows

North-eastern Kenya could take 15 years to recover from the effects of drought, aid agency Oxfam has warned.

Most Wajir residents are nomads, who use livestock to store wealth, and most of these animals have died.

Some 70% of the district's small shops have closed down because people cannot repay their credit, Oxfam says.

Across the Horn of Africa, at least 11.5 million people need food aid after last year's drought, following a decade of low rainfall.

'Mortal danger'

Local elders say it took many years for herds to recover after the previous drought in 1992.

That year, 43 of Antar Ahmed's 52 cattle died. By 2004, he had rebuilt his herd up to 85 animals but now the 76-year-old has just two cattle left.

"Now that our livestock have perished, our own lives are in mortal danger," he says.

Local resident Mohamed Ali told Oxfam the shops used to bail out nomads with loans during lean years but now no-one has the money to repay the shop-keepers.

"I don't know how we'll get through this period. So many people are on the brink," he said.

Oxfam says that livestock production accounts for up to 10% of Kenya's GDP.

Long-term assistance will be required - in addition to the immediate need for food aid - with schemes such as cash-for-work and help to buy additional livestock, the aid agency says.

Deaths

The BBC's Adam Mynott in north-east Kenya says that some three-quarters of all grazing animals have died and the barren dusty soil around Wajir is littered with the dried-up carcases of thousands of dead animals.

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He says that in many areas two-thirds of people are reliant for survival on food aid.

Our reporter says the paediatric ward of Wajir hospital receives new arrivals every day - pathetic, emaciated children suffering from drought-related diseases. Many have died.

New rains should be just a few weeks away, but if, as feared, they prove to be less heavy and less long-lasting than usual, the outlook for millions is very uncertain, he adds.