Analysis: Liberia's balance of forces

By Mark Doyle BBC world affairs correspondent

There are many different armed factions involved in the current fighting in the Liberian capital, Monrovia.

The Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (Lurd) are a combination of domestic and international opponents of President Charles Taylor.

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Their leader, Sekou Conneh, and his politically powerful wife, Ayesha, have close links with the regime in Liberia's neighbour, Guinea, and have assembled a number of Liberian warlords to support their cause.

These include remnants of the regime Mr Taylor overthrew in September 1990, including Chayee Doe, younger brother of the late president, Samual Doe, and some soldiers who have subsequently defected from Mr Taylor's camp.

Some of the most detailed public analysis of Lurd has been published by the think-tank, the International Crisis Group.

It says it is an open secret that Guinea supports Lurd with arms shipments, communications equipment and transportation.

It adds that the house of Ayesha Conneh in the Guinean capital, Conakry, is often protected by Guinean presidential guards and that the communications equipment she uses to track Lurd activities was supplied by the Guinean authorities.

Guinea accuses Liberia of backing anti-Guinean rebels, and the Lurd can to some extent be seen as Guinea's riposte to that.

Powerful enemies

But President Taylor has other enemies as well, including the United States and Britain, both of which have been instrumental in imposing a UN arms embargo and a travel ban on his government.

Britain plays a key military role in Liberia's western neighbour, Sierra Leone, backing the government in Freetown against Liberian-backed rebels who until two years ago were fighting in Sierra Leone.

President Taylor also has problems with his eastern neighbour, Ivory Coast.

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When a rebellion broke out in Ivory Coast last year, Liberian mercenaries got involved with one of the groups fighting President Laurent Gbagbo.

According to the International Crisis Group, Mr Gbagbo then armed a Lurd breakaway faction which became known as the Movement for Democracy in Liberia, or Model.

Lurd is an ethnic mixture of Liberian Mandingos led by Sekou Conneh and ethnic Khrans who tend to dominate in Model.

The existence of Model raises the possible spectre of a three-way fight involving it, mainstream Lurd, and President Taylor's forces.

President Taylor is believed to have a larger number of armed men under his command than the rebels.

These include elements of the army he overthrew in 1990 - the Armed Forces or Liberia (AFL) - various armed police and special security units, and what is probably his ace card, the so-called Anti Terrorist Unit (ATU).

The ATU, one of the few armed units in Liberia to have access to recognisable uniforms and relatively regular pay, is made up of Liberians, Burkinabes and some former Sierra Leonian rebels who lost their jobs when the war in Sierra Leone ended.

The ATU have newish weapons - despite a theoretical UN arms embargo - and better training than most other units associated with the government side.

Hit-and-run fighting

But if Lurd have smaller forces, they have made considerable gains in recent months, sweeping down from their bases near the border with Guinea towards the Liberian capital.

The attack this week into the heart of Monrovia was the most serious threat to President Charles Taylor yet.

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Latest reports from the Liberian capital indicate that President Taylor's forces have pushed Lurd back from the positions they were defending 24 hours earlier in the centre of downtown Monrovia.

Such see-sawing movements can be expected to continue.

Much of the fighting in Liberia is traditionally hit-and-run.

Typically, the side which shoots first usually "wins" an engagement by taking territory and looting.

The other side then runs away, only to regroup and hit back, looting what is left.

Innocent civilians get caught in the middle.

As the African proverb goes: "When two elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers."