Africa goes easy on Mugabe

Mbeki has a crucial decision to make about his old ally

By Richard Dowden Africa analyst

The speed with which several African leaders congratulated President Robert Mugabe on his victory might suggest that Africa and the rest of the world saw different elections taking place in Zimbabwe last weekend.

It is more complicated than that. Mr Mugabe is an old man and, as Zimbabwe's first president, is the "Father of the Nation".

In a continent that reveres old age and powerful rulers, few will criticise him openly.

Each of those African leaders who rushed to congratulate Mr Mugabe also had strong domestic reasons for doing so.

Setting an example

To criticise the election in Zimbabwe would set a precedent for electoral standards in their own countries.

Mugabe: Respected as hero of liberation struggle - and as an elder

One of the first to welcome Mr Mugabe's election victory was President Daniel arap Moi of Kenya, whose last two elections were marred by intimidation and manipulation similar to Zimbabwe's.

Bad government in Kenya has put Mr Moi out of favour with Western donors so he also wants to blame "Western colonialists" for Kenya's decline.

The country is facing an election at the end of this year and violence against opposition groups has already begun.

Namibian ally

The poll result was also quickly welcomed by President Sam Nujoma of Namibia, an old friend of Mr Mugabe, who controversially changed his own country's constitution so he could stay on a third term as president.

Mr Mugabe was also congratulated by President Levy Mwanawasa who won a disputed election in Zambia last December by a narrow majority.

The local election monitoring body said that discrepancies in the vote "questioned the legitimacy and credibility of the result", a statement echoed by European Union observers.

Like Mr Mugabe, they want to blame outsiders for the failings of African governments

Mr Mwanawasa said anyone who questioned the result was a traitor and would be dealt with by the police.

He is also chairman of the Organisation of African Unity, whose election observer team declared the election credible, free and fair, as did the election observer teams from Nigeria and South Africa.

Reasons to be cheerful

Yet this is not a clear split between Africa and the rest of the world.

The Commonwealth election observers, led by a Nigerian, condemned the election and the team from the regional body, the Southern Africa Development Community, also said it did not comply with the necessary standard. Why the discrepancy?

• Some African observers are appointed by African governments or from ruling parties, and may have been directed to deliver a particular verdict
• They may be far more tolerant of state violence, manipulation and lower electoral standards than observers expect
• They, and some African leaders, do not want to give Africa a bad image in the world and prefer African solidarity over principles of justice and honesty.
• Like Mr Mugabe, they want to blame outsiders for the failings of African governments and claim that an imperialist Europe and America which wants to recolonise Africa.

Judging by the press in the rest of Africa, many other Africans are critical of the election.

South Africa's crunch decision

The African who must decide what to do next about Zimbabwe is President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa.

Zimbabwe's poll was closely watched in South Africa

He has refused to criticise Mr Mugabe in public and has tried to use persuasion in private, so far without visible result.

Zimbabwe's crisis is damaging South Africa's economy and frightening off desperately needed foreign investment.

It is also threatening to send thousands of refugees fleeing into South Africa, which is already host to some two million.

Mozambique and Botswana, close South African allies in the region, are also severely affected. Mr Mbeki cannot afford to allow misrule in Zimbabwe to continue.

Diplomatic sources in South Africa say that he hopes to persuade Mr Mugabe to step down or seek national reconciliation by sharing power in a government of national unity.

There is little sign that Mr Mugabe will do this willingly and if chaos ensues, South Africa might have to use its muscle by cutting power supplies or the transport links to persuade him.