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Monday, 11 March, 2002, 12:00 GMT
Q&A: Zimbabwe election
Zimbabweans have been voting in presidential elections. The campaign has been marred by political violence and accusations that the vote will be rigged.

Who are the candidates?

This is a two-horse race between President Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai.

Mr Mugabe has led Zimbabwe since independence in 1980. At first he was praised for providing free education and healthcare but his record is now tarnished by economic meltdown and the political violence of recent years.

Mr Tsvangirai is the candidate of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDM).

He is a charismatic former trade unionist. The MDC is a coalition of groups united more by their opposition to Mr Mugabe than anything else.

There are three other candidates who have no chance of winning.

How is the voting going?

Polling was supposed to end on Sunday evening, but the opposition won a court order extending it for a third day.

High Court judges took a helicopter ride over the capital, Harare, to see for themselves the huge queues of people outside polling stations who had failed to vote despite waiting in line for many hours.

Considerably fewer polling stations were set up in urban areas for this election than in the 2000 parliamentary poll.

The government says it opened more in the countryside than last time, to cut down travelling time for voters.

However the opposition says the move was made to favour President Mugabe - the MDC has much more support in the cities.

Out of a population of more than 12 million, some 5.6 million are registered to vote; half a million more than in the 2000 elections.

Why has there been so much international interest?

Mostly because of the violence, which has been called "state-sponsored terrorism".

In the past decade, multi-party elections have spread across Africa, replacing the days of dictatorship and military rule.

Against this background, Zimbabwe is being seen as something of a test case.

Britain has been especially concerned because many of the white farmers caught up in the violence in recent years still have family in the UK.

Also, Zimbabwe once had such a positive image, where years of warfare ended in 1980 with reconciliation between former enemies.

It was also one of Africa's stronger economies but is now reliant on food aid.

If the economic situation continues to worsen, neighbouring countries - South Africa in particular - are worried about an increase in the number of Zimbabweans going abroad to find work.

Will the election be free and fair?

Opposition supporters have been beaten up and killed and the security forces have broken up MDC meetings.

Laws have been passed which have disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of potential voters and police officers are now saying that they are being forced to vote for Mr Mugabe.

Nevertheless, the result is not a foregone conclusion.

Election observers and representatives of the candidates may well be allowed to witness the count - as in previous elections - and so we should know if the results reflect the will of the electorate.

Some 22,000 government employees are the official monitors. There are 560 foreign observers - but none from the European Union - as well as 300 local observers.

So Mr Tsvangirai could still win?

It cannot be ruled out. Despite everything, he has hundreds of thousands of supporters who will vote for him.

So does Mr Mugabe and it may well be a close call.

Mr Mugabe accepted defeat in a referendum in February 2000 and the MDC won almost as many seats as Zanu-PF in June 2000 parliamentary elections, despite similar levels of political violence.

And what would happen if Mr Tsvangirai did win?

All eyes would then be on Mr Mugabe.

His military chiefs have said they would refuse to recognise Mr Tsvangirai but if Mr Mugabe accepted defeat gracefully, they would no doubt follow his lead.

Some leading war veterans have also warned that an opposition victory would mean civil war but they could easily be controlled by the security forces - if they so desired.

The man seen by many as Mr Mugabe's chosen heir, Emmerson Mnangagwa, has said that Zanu-PF would respect the verdict of the people.

What if Mr Tsvangirai won the vote but lost the count?

Then Zimbabwe's future would look grim indeed.

There is the possibility of a popular uprising - then everything would depend on whether soldiers and police were willing to shoot at opposition demonstrators.

Or the population and Mr Tsvangirai might decide to back down on the basis that a civil war would be even worse than the present situation.

Zimbabwe could expect to be suspended from the Commonwealth, following the imposition of targeted sanctions by the European Union and the United States.

Wider trade sanctions are unlikely to be used as these would hurt ordinary Zimbabweans.

Mr Mugabe has already said that he does not care if Zimbabwe is suspended from the Commonwealth.

Could Mr Mugabe win the election fairly?

That is possible, however the opposition would certainly complain that even if the counting was fair, the intimidation, official harassment and new electoral laws stacked the cards in Mr Mugabe's favour.

Links to more Africa stories are at the foot of the page.


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