Analysis: Tough decision for Commonwealth

Zimbabwe is proving a headache for the Commonwealth

By Barnaby Mason BBC diplomatic correspondent

The Commonwealth summit in Australia has set up a troika of three leaders to decide on possible future action against Zimbabwe.

The Australian prime minister and the presidents of South Africa and Nigeria will make the decision after considering a report by Commonwealth observers to be submitted after next weekend's presidential election.

The issue cannot simply be swept under the carpet and forgotten once the summit is over

Britain and Australia had argued for the immediate suspension of Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth while several African countries did not want the matter discussed at all.

It ended up being a typical Commonwealth compromise - nothing stronger could have been expected given the need to secure the agreement of more than 50 countries.

No commitment

The concessions made by the group led by Britain may seem more obvious: there is no direct criticism of President Robert Mugabe.

No action is certain even if the election is deemed a fraud

The summit statement endorses Mr Mugabe's line that land is at the core of the crisis in Zimbabwe.

There is no commitment to any particular action even if Commonwealth observers decide the election is fraudulent.

On the other hand there is now a mechanism that allows for Zimbabwe's suspension.

The issue cannot simply be swept under the carpet and forgotten once the summit is over.

The mechanism is a troika made up of the present, past and future chairmen of the Commonwealth, the leaders of Australia, South Africa and Nigeria.

The key moment after the presidential election will be the report by the Commonwealth observer team

Some may think the preponderant African voice makes it less likely that the Commonwealth will act.

But if it does, Mr Mugabe will not be able to complain convincingly that he is the victim of a white racist plot.

The key moment after the presidential election will be the report by the Commonwealth observer team.

Credibility

A lot will depend on its phrasing as well as its content.

If the observers say flatly that the election result does not reflect the will of the people, it will be hard for the troika not to suspend Zimbabwe.

But things may not be so clear cut.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair gave a warning that if the observers submitted an adverse report but no action was taken, it would be a real failure of the Commonwealth's credibility.