Analysis: By-election boosts Mugabe

Zimbabweans will be frequent voters in the coming year

By former Zimbabwe correspondent Joseph Winter

The Bindura by-election result is a massive boost for Robert Mugabe, just a few months before he is due to face his toughest ever challenge in presidential elections.

The Zanu-PF candidate, Elliot Manyika, gained far more votes than his predecessor, turning a narrow victory a year ago into a comfortable majority.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is complaining about the intimidation of its supporters, but this was also the case in last June's general election and is unlikely to change.

They will have to re-examine their strategies in the run-up to the all-important presidential poll, due before next April.

Since last June, there have been three by-elections in Zimbabwe and in each one, Zanu-PF has increased its share of the vote, even winning back Bikita West from the opposition, although the MDC did win a mayoral election in the central town of Masvingo.

Carrot and stick

The MDC complains that it has no organised force to oppose the war veteran-organised Zanu-PF youth, nor does it have the means to distribute land - the carrot-and-stick approach which Mr Mugabe hopes will keep him in power.

But after tapping into a huge base of pent-up anti-Mugabe feeling in last year's elections, some people feel the MDC is now losing focus.

Bindura is exactly the sort of mixed urban-rural seat which the opposition MDC must win in order to end Mr Mugabe's 21-year hold on the reins of power.

The MDC candidate Eliot Pfebve admits that giving out plots of land helped Zanu-PF

Politics are neatly divided in most of Zimbabwe, with town-dwellers supporting the MDC and black farmers backing Mr Mugabe.

When the Bindura result was announced a year ago, it was immediately obvious that the MDC would not win overall control of parliament, as they had hoped.

Even the losing MDC candidate has admitted that Mr Mugabe's controversial strategy of handing out land taken from white farmers to black peasants played a key role in his defeat.

This result will encourage the 77-year-old president to press ahead with this strategy.

'Stooges'

In rural areas, the MDC have allowed themselves to be portrayed as opponents of land reform - and therefore stooges of Britain and the white farmers.

With 70% of the population living outside the main cities, the MDC needs rural votes during next year's election.

It must press more strongly its argument that the redistribution of farmland is necessary, but that it must be done according to the law and at a pace which won't destroy the economy.

Mugabe wants another six-year term in office

This, however, is easier said than done.

Its meetings in rural areas are easily broken up by Mr Mugabe's supporters and it is never allowed to make its case on the state-controlled airwaves.

Several privately-owned newspapers provide the oxygen of publicity to the opposition, but most subsistence farmers do not have the money to buy them - and they are not on sale in small villages.

In the wake of the deaths of other Zanu-PF MPs and court rulings that some of last year's elections were achieved through violent and illegal means, there will be several more by-elections before next year's poll which - providing both parties with ample opportunity to revamp their campaign strategies.