Analysis: What next in Guinea-Bissau?

The army backed General Mane's previous rebellion

By the BBC's Virginia Gidley-Kitchin

The turbulent events in Guinea Bissau, where a former military ruler is said to have been shot dead after an alleged coup attempt, have brought to a head long-running tensions between the civilian and military authorities.

President Kumba Yala took office in February as the country's first civilian leader and, arguably, its first democratically elected leader since independence.

He took over from General Ansumane Mane, the former army chief of staff who had ruled Guinea Bissau since May 1999, when he overthrew President Joao Bernardo Vieira after a 10-month rebellion.

But charges that President Yala was favouring his own ethnic group, particularly in promotions to top military posts, gave General Mane an excuse to intervene again.

High expectations

Even before surrendering power, General Mane had made it clear that he expected the army to continue to exercise political influence under civilian rule.

The problems left by President Vieira have still to be be tackled

But, under pressure from western donors to allow genuinely democratic elections, he refrained from standing himself or clearly sponsoring any of the candidates.

President Yala, a former teacher from a new political generation, swept to power on a tide of popularity and national jubilation in what was a clear vote for change.

A stirring orator with a common touch, he had aroused high hopes of ending the corruption and incompetence that had plagued the country under the long rule of President Vieira.

It was precisely these failings that finally brought about the fall of President Vieira, once the hero of Guinea Bissau's independence struggle from Portugal.

His attempt to sack General Mane in June 1998 backfired, triggering a civil war that dragged in neighbouring Senegal and ended with his own ousting.

Challenges ahead

But in his few months in office, President Yala has proved a disappointment.

General Mane highlighted genuine grievances

His alleged favouritism of his own Balanta tribe has antagonised the country's political classes, while his failure to curb corruption or revive the economy has upset the general population.

The rapid ebbing of support from General Mane this week, in marked contrast to his previous rebellion, shows even the army realised that people had no appetite for further military rule.

But President Yala, his political honeymoon over, still faces huge problems.

He is unlikely to be able to improve the economy, one of the world's poorest, until foreign donors restore aid - and they are waiting to see evidence of action against corruption.

But a more immediate risk may come from the army, which still wields huge clout and inspires national respect for its role in the war of independence.

Mr Yala's attempts to reform the armed forces by allegedly promoting members of his own tribe may have been misguided, but are understandable given his desire to assert civilian control over what had long been the power in the land.

The army has united behind President Yala this time, but its continued loyalty to a man with no military background and diminishing popular support cannot be guaranteed.