Analysis: Zanzibar's uncertain future

The Zanzibar opposition wanted a complete election re-run

By Roger Dean in Zanzibar

Tanzania has just had two general elections.

On the mainland the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party scored a landslide victory, taking 95% of the seats in the Bunge, Tanzania's parliament.

Most observers are broadly happy with the manner in which this victory came, although Tanzania Labour Party candidate Augustine Mrema's claims of rigging are now receiving closer attention.

The result has ensured that there will be no lively opposition during the next five years, and no challenge to CCM. As if the ruling party needed emboldened, a mandate of this scale reinforces its position as the only power structure that counts.

Zanzibar farce

The hotly-contested Zanzibar archipelago also went to CCM, but in a wholly less convincing manner.

The first attempt at the election had to be cancelled in a third of constituencies.

Disastrous organisation probably combined with political sabotage turned the polling into a farce.

The list of irregularities is damning:

• Many polling stations opened hours late, due to a lack of ballot papers.
  
• Several did not open at all, and so recorded not a single vote.
  
• Both parties have made a series of allegations about tampering with ballot boxes and people voting more than once.

The Zanzibar Electoral Commission re-ran the election in those 16 constituencies on Sunday 5 November.

The opposition Civic United Front boycotted, and is demanding the electoral process start all over again.

There were also no international observers present, in protest at the first round fiasco.

The Commonwealth Observers Group issued a highly critical statement.

The election was a "shambles" they said, and the outcome represented a "colossal contempt for the Zanzibari people and their aspirations for democracy".

With only CCM taking part in the election re-run, the process looked worryingly like an old one-party rubber-stamp election.

Response

Two groups could have been expected vigorously to respond to this - neither have done so.

Firstly, the international community has made its statements but appears so far to have done nothing.

Zanzibar's poll threatens President Mkapa's credibility

Diplomatic opinion seems largely to be that the elections were unacceptable.

After Zanzibar's suspect election in 1995, the donors cut off all aid to the island.

They will most probably do it again unless a satisfactory solution can be found.

This time, however, the mainland could also be affected.

It seems very unlikely that there would be a large-scale isolation on Tanzania as a whole - the international community has invested much in promoting Tanzania as the new 'model country' in Africa.

If the donors could act in unison, symbolic aid cuts and uncomplimentary statements could persuade CCM to soften its stand.

Secondly, CUF's apparent inability to act is crucial.

Their leader Seif Hamad was in the Netherlands chairing a worthy but minor committee during the post-election week in which leadership was most needed.

In his absence the CUF have openly been holding leadership meetings. Hamad's grip on his party is in doubt. A challenger to Hamad is not obvious, but the field has been widened due to incoming President Karume.

One of his first acts after his inauguration was to release 18 CUF members, who were on trial for treason. This was widely denounced as a political trial, and Karume's conciliatory gesture has been well received.

A charismatic leader could still bring CUF supporters out on the streets.

As it is believed CUF have enough support to win a free and fair election, shows of force cannot be discounted.