Arusha: No magic formula

Peace is still a long way off

By Chris Simpson from Bujumbura

After more than two years of negotiations Burundi is now meant to be on the verge of an historic peace agreement.

Chief mediator Nelson Mandela says he is confident there is enough common ground to end the seven-year civil war which has claimed more than 200,000 lives.

But despite repeated calls for a new spirit of national unity the political, regional and ethnic divisions have remained as sharp as ever.

The present government says it wants peace but thinks the mediators in Arusha have been unrealistic.

Problems

Information Minister Luke Rukingama says the draft agreement contains a number of contradictions, ambiguities, repetitions and confusions.

Nelson Mandela: HAs pushed for a signing on 28 August

"To make sure that the transition will work we have to refer to a very clear and a very balanced text, and this is not," he says.

Mr Rukingama says his government will sign the peace agreement but insists President Pierre Buyoya stay in power, arguing that the military leader is the man best qualified to steer Burundi through a difficult period of transition.

But for many Burundians President Buyoya is a spent force.

Radical change

The mainly Hutu Burundian Front for Democracy, or Frodebu, say that despite the government's official commitment to power sharing and ethnic harmony they have been cheated in the past

President Buyoya: Unhappy with many aspects of the peace plan

The party says Burundians are tired of the war and economic decline and want radical change now.

But in recent weeks the war in Burundi has been getting worse.

There has been a spate of attacks and ambushes in the east of the country and reports of rebel strikes from across the Tanzanian border.

And areas close to the capital remain highly unstable.

Flawed deal

The government warns that any peace agreement to come out of Arusha will count for little if there is no ceasefire first.

And for that to face talks are need with rebel leaders.

But for many Burundians the Arusha agreement, however flawed, is too good an opportunity to miss.

But people's optimism is tempered by their knowledge of the past.

They are aware that every previous peace effort has failed and there will be no magic formula out of Arusha and no miracles afterwards.