Poll monitor: Sun shines for Labour

By the editor of BBC Research, David Cowling

The latest MORI poll in The Times provides continuing evidence of a Labour revival this summer. Compared with July, Labour's support is up 2%, the Conservatives have lost 4% and the Lib Dems are up 3%.

It has been a rather gloomy season for the Conservative. Having started June with a poll that cropped Labour's lead to 3%, every single poll in August has seen Labour's position improve. And this poll is the first in which the Conservative share has fallen below 30% since April this year.

As if to rub salt into the wound, the additional data provided by the survey supports the voting intention trend: satisfaction with the way the government is running the country, Mr Blair's personal ratings and optimism about improvement in the economy over the next 12 months have all increased since July.

In addition to his party's falling ratings, Mr Hague's personal standing has also declined - overall by 5% but among Conservative supporters by 7%.

Time running out

If May 2001 is to be the date for the next general election then it is now just seven months away. If we look at the polls seven months prior to the 1997 election we find that the opposition was, on average, 24% ahead of the government.

Seven months prior to the 1992 general election, the opposition and government were neck and neck in the polls. The present position is that the government has an average poll lead of 16%.

The forthcoming party conference season will provide what their organisers hope are showcases for their respective leaders and policies.

These may or may not affect public opinion in subsequent polls but, undoubtedly, the greatest pressure is now on William Hague to enthuse his party and convince both his members and voters at large that the outcome of the next election is not a foregone conclusion.