Analysis: Bush's case for change

Mr Bush's speech was well-received

By the BBC's Stephen Sackur in Philadelphia

The Republicans needed to prove to the US public that they were capable of winning back the White House, that they deserved to win it back and that they had a good reason to be given the chance to win it back.

They are going to leave this convention in Philadelphia believing that they have achieved all of those objectives.

Rival candidate Al Gore is accused of thriving on a politics of fear

Obviously, we will have to wait to assess public reaction and we will also have to gauge just how many Americans were watching this event.

While it seems a very big deal to those inside the convention centre, one always has to remember that the majority of Americans are simply not paying attention to this convention.

Making a case for change

Mr Bush had to come up with a compelling reason on why Americans should change the status quo.

Don't forget that the last eight years, America has enjoyed unprecedented prosperity.

There is a case to be made that President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore have delivered that prosperity.

Certainly, the current administration's job approval rating is high.

Mr Bush promised to renew a sense of moral purpose

For the challenger to convince the public that it is time for change, he has to come up with a reason.

Wasted opportunity

George Bush thinks that he has found a reason: Wasted opportunity; that America could do and can do so much more with the wealth and prosperity that it is currently enjoying.

In part, he invested this with religious overtones.

There is no doubt, if you look at his beliefs and his record, he is a man heavily influenced by a Christian, born-again philosophy, and that kind of approach to governance and to life is seen throughout the speech.

He often referred to an America that could and should aspire to do great things, but these not been achieved in the last eight years and will not be achieved by someone like Al Gore.

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Without naming him, Mr Bush essentially accuses Mr Gore of thriving on a politics of fear and negativity.

Mr Bush wants to put himself out there as the candidate of hope, of optimism, of the future, and paint Al Gore as the candidate of the past, of pessimism and of negativity.

The ghost of Bill Clinton

Building on that moral theme, Mr Bush also promised to renew a sense of moral purpose and clarity to the presidency.

The Republicans believe that it is an important strand of their strategy in tying Mr Gore to Mr Clinton.

They do not mention President Clinton directly or go into the detail of the impeachment scandal.

The polls show that the public wants to move on.

But what Republicans do want to do is to refer in the broadest sense to a White House and a Washington soiled by tainted morality and a loss of honour, respect and dignity.

And clearly throughout this speech, there is an attempt to tie Mr Gore to Mr Clinton.

A page from Bill's play book

But while the speech strongly rejected the status quo of the Democrats, it showed how Republicans have embraced one of Bill Clinton's political tactics: Triangulation.

It is a strategy of taking the extremes of both parties and finding a workable centre, which appeals to many of the floating voters that will decide the fate of this election.

You can see it in the way that Mr Bush's speech referred to programmes in which he has co-operated with Democrats in his own state.

He actually appealed to a joint party effort to save social security.

Time and again he spoke in the language of bipartisanship, hoping that it would appeal to the centre ground in the electorate while at the same time striking some very conservative themes.

He talked about abortion, and assured people that not only was he against it, but that he would sign a bill banning partial birth abortion.

In a sense, he is trying to stay true to his base while also appealing to the centre ground.

The Democratic response

Clearly, the Texas governor has laid down a significant challenge to the Democrats, and Al Gore in particular.

I have no doubt that we will see the Republicans come out of this convention with a bounce in the polls, perhaps with Mr Bush enjoying double-digit leads in the next polls that come out.

This will create the sense that Democrats are behind the game, and the party will have to respond to the charge that they represent the status quo.

Democrats will point to certain issues and say that, when you cut through the rhetoric, that the Republicans represent a threat to the workingman and woman and. On specific issues, such as healthcare and social security, Democrats believe they still hold the advantage.

Mr Gore, in particular, will have to respond to the idea that he is a candidate who is too negative and that he is a candidate of a status quo who has delivered prosperity without any real moral purpose.

Mr Gore will have to invest his message with a strong moral purpose to counteract the message that Mr Bush laid out tonight.

In a week in Los Angeles, we will see if he can do it.