What now for Syria?

After Assad: An uncertain future for Syria and the Middle East

By BBC News Online's Tarik Kafala

President Hafez al-Assad's death leaves a political vacuum in Syria and raises many questions about the Middle East peace process.

He is expected to be succeeded by Bashar, his designated heir and eldest surviving son.

Bashar stepped into the role of heir apparent in 1994 after the death of the late president's favourite son, the charismatic and well loved Basil.

But it is not at all clear that Bashar, who was training as an eye doctor in London until 1994, has the political skills or backing to take power with any authority.

Bashar: Selected heir

Although he was being groomed to continue the Assad dynasty, it is doubtful that this preparation was complete.

The immediate signs are good for the designated heir - the Syrian Parliament has already amended the constitution to remove an age restriction that would have prevented him from succeeding.

Bashar was given what was called the Lebanon File, and was put in charge of a drive against corruption and for economic reforms.

The Military

Unlike his father and his brother Basil, Bashar has had only the briefest military training. Observers have questioned whether the powerful Syrian military will accept him as president.

The Syrian military establishment has been very much behind Mr Assad's regime. Whether Bashar can count on the military, or whether the military might feel that stability is better served by coming forward with its own candidate is an open question.

Mr Assad and his family come from the minority Alawite community in Syria - an offshoot of the Shia sect of Islam.

The majority Sunni Muslim community may see the president's death as an opportunity to remove the Alawites from power.

The peace process

His death is also expected to have a major impact on the Middle East peace process, because Syria is vital to the building of any lasting peace deal.

There is no indication that Bashar's views on the process are different from those of his father.

It was widely believed that Mr Assad wanted to complete a peace deal with Israel before his death. The failure to do this is expected to herald a long period of hiatus in the process.

The Syrian leader was widely respected both within his own country and in the wider Arab world for taking a tough line in negotiations with Israel.

It is unlikely that his successor will be in a position to make the concessions required for a deal with Israel in the short term.

Lebanon uncertainty

In Lebanon, which Syria has dominated since the end of the civil war, Mr Assad's death will also usher in a period of uncertainly.

He was seen by many Lebanese as the one Arab leader to stand up to Israel, and was loved and respected accordingly.

Many others resented the hold Damascus had on Lebanon, and will see Mr Assad's passing as an opportunity to break the bond.