Key vote for Montenegro

Milo Djukanovic presses the flesh at his final rally

The republic of Montenegro, which shares the Yugoslav federation with Serbia, is voting to elect two municipal councils in a poll with important implications for the future of Yugoslavia.

The two main election coalitions are presenting mutually exclusive visions of the future of the country.

The government of President Milo Djukanovic wants to loosen Montenegro's ties to the federal and Serbian governments and has threatened to hold a referendum on independence unless Belgrade agrees to a looser federation.

The main opposition seeks to boost unity under the leadership of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.

Secession the issue

The vote is the first major test of public opinion since the elections in late 1997 that brought President Djukanovic to power.

The choice... is not between Yugoslavia and an independent Montenegro, but between civilized development and conflict with civilization

President Milo Djukanovic

The opposition hopes that his move from support for the federation to threats of secession will erode his electoral support.

The government is banking on the cautious backing Montenegro has received from the West for its economic and democratic reforms to encourage the public to opt for its policy of distancing itself from Mr Milosevic.

The elections - in the capital Podgorica and the coastal town of Herceg Novi - were prompted by the withdrawal of the Liberal Alliance from local pacts with the government.

The Liberal Alliance is trying to force the government into setting a date for the independence referendum.

The two towns are home to almost a third of the republic's population of 640,000.

Voters cautious

The government is reluctant to commit itself to a referendum date, as this might provoke the Yugoslav army and because it is not confident of winning enough support.

The Yugoslav army still garrisons the republic and there have been several stand-offs with the armed Montenegrin police.

Although most young Montenegrins seem to support the government's pro-Europe, anti-Milosevic policies, it is not clear whether they would risk a clash with the army over independence.

Opposition leader Momir Bulatovic backs Milosevic

Many older voters feel loyalty to the ideals of a united Yugoslavia, whatever their attitude to Mr Milosevic.

The opposition Yugoslavia Coalition, led by the Yugoslav prime minister and former Montenegrin president, Momir Bulatovic, is trying to exploit the government's uncertainty over the referendum.

Mr Djukanovic is leading a three-party coalition called "Better Life" against the Yugoslavia Coalition, which is made up of the Socialist People's Party, the Serbian People's Party and the ultra-nationalist Serbian Radical Party.

Fears over aftermath

The first unofficial results should emerge on Monday with the official results due on Thursday, unless any party objects.

If the regime dares to steal the election... it will be to blame for the lava of evil which will flow over Montenegro

Bozidar Bojovic of the opposition Serbian People's Party

Mr Bulatovic, despite earlier warnings, is now said to be unlikely to object, but radicals in his coalition have sounded more hostile.

Bozidar Bojovic, a leader of the Serbian People's Party, has warned of post-vote tension.

"If the regime dares to steal the election like in 1997... it will be to blame for the lava of evil which will flow over Montenegro," he said.

Mr Djukanovic told a 7,000-strong rally in Podgorica on Thursday that outright independence was not on the agenda.

"Montenegro is much closer to Brussels than to Baghdad... The choice is not between Yugoslavia and an independent Montenegro at the forthcoming elections, but between civilized development and conflict with civilization," he said.

BBC Monitoring, based in Caversham in southern England, selects and translates information from radio, television, press, news agencies and the Internet from 150 countries in more than 70 languages.