First steps of friendship?

There is excitement over the summit in both countries

By Aidan Foster-Carter

Last time the Koreans almost held a summit it was brokered by the ex-US president Jimmy Carter, but aborted on the sudden death of the northern leader Kim Il-sung in 1994.

This time it is for real and it is all their own work, which is a better basis.

The two Koreas are taking tentative steps towards friendship

For Kim Dae-jung, his visit to Pyongyang is a triumph for the bold "sunshine" policy to which he has firmly held since being elected president in 1997

This involves patience in the face of provocation, but not weakness - a year ago, the southern navy sank a northern patrol boat that fired on them.

Mr Kim's sunshine policy also encourages business and citizens to go north - hitherto a crime.

The Hyundai group's northern-born founder Chung Ju-yung has seized on the chance.

His cruise boats have taken 250,000 southern tourists north, and he has twice met the north's reclusive leader Kim Jong-il, son of Kim Il-sung.

Secret talks

Having thus built an atmosphere of pragmatism and trust, the clincher was Kim Dae-jung's Berlin declaration in March - which offered southern aid to help rebuild the north's crumbling infrastructure and plant.

This was a gift horse which Kim Jong-il could hardly afford not to inspect more closely. His economy is in dire straits, having shrunk by half in the 1990s, as has trade. Famine has eased but not ended.

So secret talks began in March, and the summit was announced in April for June 12-14.

How will it go? It may be the first summit, but we have seen high-level talks before. Earlier Korean "breakthroughs" - in 1972, 1985, and 1991 - all turned out to be false dawns. This too could be just a one-off. North Korea might retreat back into its shell.

Kim Dae-jung is likely to avoid security issues

Sleeping with the enemy does not appeal to the powerful military, which has much to lose from an outbreak of peace.

Or South Korea may find the north eager to take, but not ready to reciprocate on its own concerns like security issues and family reunions.

And yet this time hope should triumph over experience. Kim Jong-il's recent visit to Beijing suggests seriousness. Letting what Pyongyang once called the south's "reptile press" broadcast the summit live is bold indeed.

So what may come of it? This initial meeting may not produce concrete results, but Seoul hopes it will be the first of many, not necessarily at top level, but hopefully leading to several permanent dialogue channels in different fields.

Conversation topics

The potential inter-Korean agenda is huge. The aim is to start with the easy bits, such as culture and sports exchanges. Pyongyang's circus, one of the world's best, has been wowing audiences in Seoul. Such visits - in both directions - should become routine.

The economy of Kim Jong-il's N Korea remains weak

Economics too is not hard. The south's conglomerates could move swiftly to start rebuilding northern roads, railways, ports, and telecoms.

Yet Seoul will need assurances that these would never be used to speed northern troops and tanks south.

Reunions of the millions of families separated for half a century are also high on the south's agenda, but Pyongyang may fear unrest when its own lean and hungry people contrast their lot with their well-fed and sophisticated southern cousins.

Toughest of all are security issues. The US and Japan are pressing Kim Dae-jung to put their own nuclear and missile concerns at the top of his agenda. Rightly, he is resisting this for now, but the military side cannot be ducked for long.

The summit is a hugely important first step, potentially of equal historic importance to Nixon's visit to China. Both Kims have shown courage and skill to get this far.

They will need to maintain both qualities if this is, as the world hopes, just the first step down the long road to finally resolving what remains one of the last century's greatest tragedies.

Aidan Foster-Carter is Hon. Senior Research Fellow in Sociology and Modern Korea at Leeds University