WI fiasco could be turning point

Tony Blair is being urged to learn lessons

By BBC News Online's political correspondent Nick Assinder

There was a moment during the 1992 general election campaign when it all went horribly wrong for Labour leader Neil Kinnock.

He attended a rally in Sheffield and, with his confidence at its peak, took to the stage like an ageing rock star, punching the air and shouting "well, alright, well alright."

His triumphalist performance made many wince and, the next day, Labour admitted the occasion had backfired and their leader had embarrassed himself by looking as if he had already won the election.

But a greater distance from the event and it began to look like the defining moment of the election campaign which Mr Kinnock went on to lose.

Clearly it was not the reason why Labour lost in 1992 but it remains as a potent symbol of the party's failings at that time - over-confidence, a laddish image and, as many believed, Mr Kinnock himself.

Proper fight

On Wednesday, Tony Blair was landed with a similar disaster with his ill-advised visit to the WI conference at Wembley arena.

On the surface, it might seem relatively trivial that he was heckled by a small group of women in an audience of 10,000 which was certain to include many Tory supporters.

Members of the WI resented a political speech

But, like the Sheffield rally, it spoke volumes about the government, its spin operation and Mr Blair himself.

And it is quite possible that after the next election, the Wembley rally will take on the same sort of symbolism the Sheffield meeting acquired.

It will still take a political miracle for William Hague to actually win the next election but, with the government going through one of its most difficult periods yet, it is beginning to look like it will be a proper fight.

Tories wake up

Mr Blair can, of course, pull things back. He is still immensely popular and the government is actually doing things.

But there are problems over the NHS, law and order, pensions and, most recently, alleged elitism, and the positive message is not getting across.

Meanwhile, the opposition seems to have finally woken from its post-election stupor and Mr Hague is making significant ground on popular issues.

Mr Blair is said to be dismayed at the reception he got and is being urged to learn some hard lessons from it.

What was absolutely clear was that he had no idea he would get anything other than a rapturous reception - and his advisers clearly got it badly wrong.

Misjudged meeting

By flagging up the speech days before it was delivered, they ensured there was plenty of time for his critics in the audience to build a head of steam.

And appearing to use the event as a party political platform for a virtual re-launch also badly misjudged the spirit of such WI gatherings.

So it is no surprise that many are now blaming the prime minister's spin doctors who, before the election, were regularly claimed to have near-magical powers.

Former deputy Labour leader Lord Hattersley has stated that the spin machine has been a disaster since the election and is responsible for many of the government's woes.

It is a cry that is being echoed throughout the Labour party, with some calling for him to ditch some of his aides or at least clip their wings before their lack of judgment does any more damage.

Lesson to learn

Lord Hattersley is also leading the voices claiming that the prime minister's attempt to be all things to all men - and women - is certain to fail.

As he put it: "Unless he is prepared to make some enemies, he won't make enough friends.

"Tony Blair won middle England, not because he said 'Please middle England, I am always on your side', but because he was decisive, strong and tough on difficult issues.

"Saying: 'please believe me, I am yours whatever you want me to be' - that won't win middle England. He has to return to what he was three years ago."

Many of Mr Blair's critics in his own party claim he is not good at taking lessons from disasters and fear he may plough ahead regardless.

Others, however, are suggesting that the Wembley affair seriously rattled him and that, as a result, it may become a turning point for the prime minister.

But what he will want to avoid more than anything else is the image of him looking flummoxed and dismayed on the Wembley platform being played over and over again during the election campaign and beyond.