Speight's hold over Fiji

George Speight has good relations with the military

By Jonathan Head in Suva

One simple question hangs over the confusing events in Fiji over the past month.

How was one man, with the help of a handful of gunmen, able to dismantle Fiji's parliamentary democracy so easily?

According to George Speight, the leader of the coup, he has the overwhelming support of the indigenous Fijians, who make up just over half the population.

The rebel leader is busy moving between meetings

It is true that he enjoys a strong following, mainly among poorer Fijians in and around the capital Suva, who feel excluded from the prosperity which has come from tourism and Fiji's natural resources.

Mr Speight is a skilful speaker, who has exploited his notoriety very effectively to rally support behind his campaign for a racially-separated political system.

At gunpoint

But if he were as popular as he claims, why not simply contest an election, rather than take over the parliament at gunpoint?

In any case, he is disliked by the ethnic Indians, who make up around 45% of the population and who dominate the economy.

He is also opposed by many indigenous people, especially in the west, where the tourist industry has been badly hit by the crisis.

So why has he been so successful?

He has been helped by the ambivalent response of Fiji's traditional elite.

Initially there was strong condemnation from the veteran President, Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara, one of modern Fiji's founding fathers.

The Indian community was also outraged by the incarceration of Prime Minister Mahendra Chaudhry - the country's first ethnic Indian premier - and the overthrow of his government.

Martial law

But both the traditional chiefs, who still wield a lot of influence over political life, and the armed forces, which have declared martial law, have tried to meet Mr Speight's political demands - even though this means throwing out the constitution and leaving Fiji without a workable political system.

The army in particular could have isolated the rebels in the first days of the crisis and been much tougher in its negotiations.

Instead, it allowed George Speight's followers and the media to join him in the parliament, turning his coup into something resembling a popular uprising.

Normal life goes on despite the coup

As a result, the country now faces a severely damaged economy and international isolation.

It seems a heavy price to pay, even taking into account the fact that Mr Speight is holding most of the government hostage.

Undoubtedly, the military has been keen to avoid bloodshed.

"Rather talk"

Fijians say armed confrontation is simply not their custom - they would rather talk it through, however long it takes.

George Speight's protest message also strikes a chord with the rank and file of the security forces, who are 99% indigenous Fijians.

That would make it difficult for their commanders to order an attack on the rebels.

This is a very close-knit society, and some of the rebels are related to the troops facing them.

Some members of the armed forces have joined George Speight.

Shallow roots

Just as important is the fact that democracy has shallow roots in Fiji.

Since independence in 1970 the constitution has been changed twice.

The last constitution, introduced in 1997, allowed open competition for seats for the first time - previously there were separate indigenous and Indian seats.

Many Fijians are unhappy about damage to tourism

It was widely assumed that an ethnic Fijian would become prime minister after last year's election.

But skilful exploitation of the divisions in the indigenous parties allowed Mahendra Chaudhry's Labour Party to form the winning coalition.

It was a result many Fijians found hard to accept.

Fijian democracy is also blended with tribal customs, giving the traditional chiefs a powerful voice in the appointment of the president and senate.

Many Fijians expected the Great Council of Chiefs to sort out the crisis for them - they have been disappointed.

Two communities

The chiefs are divided by a host of personal and regional rivalries, and they are unused to making the tough choices presented to them by the coup.

At the very heart of the matter is the problem of designing a constitution which addresses the very different demands of the two communities.

Indians want to compete freely for political power, using their organisational strength within the trade union movement and business networks.

Indigenous Fijians feel that as the original inhabitants of the islands they have a special relationship with the land which could be endangered by an Indian-dominated government.

Many are critical of the violent tactics used by George Speight, but they like what he is fighting for - a Fiji in which only indigenous people can control political power.

They say the old constitution was unsuitable.

The challenge now facing the military is to form an interim government strong enough to design a new constitution and organise new elections.