Analysis: Tense times in Serbia

Belgrade police arrest opposition protester

By Nick Thorpe in Belgrade

The situation remains tense in Serbia, in the wake of the seizure by the authorities of the main opposition radio and television stations, Studio B TV, and Radio B2-92.

Demonstrations in the capital on Wednesday and Thursday nights led to clashes between protesters and riot police, in which some people were hurt, and many more arrested. Each side accuses the other of trying to provoke a civil war.

The escalation in conflict was caused by a series of incidents, which may or may not have been deliberately provoked.

On 2 May, according to the opposition, three activists of the Otpor student protest movement were beaten up by security staff at a cafe in Pozarevac, a town to the east of Belgrade which is home to the Milosevic family.

The government cracked down on Studio B TV

The three were then arrested, and kept in custody for a week, during which they also received hospital treatment for their head injuries.

Released on 8 May, two were almost immediately re-arrested, and are expected to be charged with the attempted murder of the men who attacked them.

The rest of the opposition immediately called a demonstration of solidarity with the three in Pozarevac for 9 May, then were forced to cancel it at the last minute, when police ringed the city, and detained 29 opposition activists and journalists.

Killing

The rally was re-scheduled for Belgrade on 15 May. But on 13 May, the head of the regional government in the northern province of Vojvodina, Bosko Perosevic, was shot dead by a lone gunman at an agricultural fair in Novi Sad.

Also head of the Novi Sad branch of the ruling Socialist Party, Perosevic was immediately declared a martyr and victim of terrorists.

Bosko Perosevic was the latest of Milosevic's associates to be killed

Unlike previous assassinations of close associates of President Milosevic - of the warlord Arkan in January, the Defence Minister, Pavle Bulatovic in February, and the head of JAT - Yugoslav Airlines - Zika Petrovic, in April, the killer was caught on the spot.

Security guard Milivoje Gutovic came from the same village as Perosevic, and according to one source, "adored him". But the authorities say they found documents proving he was a member of the opposition Serbian Renewal Movement - Vuk Draskovic's SPO - and also linking him to Otpor.

Both movements have vigorously denied any knowledge of him, but the state media have presented the links as proven.

Federal Information Minister Goran Matic said that Otpor was a "neo-fascist" organisation, and would no longer be tolerated.

'Stop the terror'

Since then, many of its activists - it claims over 10,000 in over 100 towns nationwide, and an average age of 21 - have gone underground.

Each day, 10 to 20 activists are arrested in different towns, normally while handing out leaflets or putting up posters.

The opposition rally was held as planned in Belgrade on 14 May, under the slogan, Stop the terror - for free elections.

No more than 20,000 people attended - a disappointment to the opposition after the 100,000 or more on 14 April.

But the situation escalated throughout the week, with Studio B closed in a pre-dawn raid on Wednesday morning.

The opposition, although deprived of their most effective mouthpieces, are using the city halls in Belgrade, and the 40 or so town councils elsewhere in the country which they control, as a springboard for the protests.

'Power struggle'

While the opposition's actions are relatively easy to predict - daily rallies across the country, with a big one planned for Belgrade on 27 May - the next moves of the government are harder to predict.

Some analysts suggest a power struggle, between Mr Milosevic and his Socialists on the one hand, wanting to avoid any further confrontations with the demonstrators, and the Yugoslav Left and the Radicals - both junior partners in the government - allegedly pushing for the crackdown to continue, and all remaining opposition media to be closed.

Vuk Draskovic is seeking the Russian president's backing

The Yugoslav Left - JUL - has also proposed anti-terrorist legislation, partly modelled on that used by the British Government in Northern Ireland, which would considerably increase police powers to arrest and detain without charges.

The opposition fear such a law would be tailor-made to suppress all remaining dissent in Serbia. Officials daily accuse the opposition - not only Otpor and the SPO but other parties too - of being the "little servants and bloody allies" of Nato - to quote Mr Milosevic's speech to World War II veterans on 9 May.

A delegation of opposition leaders, including Vuk Draskovic and Zoran Djindjic will travel to Moscow at the end of the month, to seek Russian President Putin's support.

Mr Draskovic sees the Russian Government as the only ones who still enjoy some leverage on Belgrade, and wants Mr Putin's help in getting Studio B back, and in pressurising Mr Milosevic (whose brother is Yugoslav ambassador to Moscow) to hold early elections.

But Mr Milosevic's fate may yet be decided on the streets of Belgrade.