Will Tsvangirai return bring change?

By Will Ross
BBC News, Johannesburg

MDC supporters say there has been an orchestrated campaign of violence

Zimbabwe's opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, has returned home to Zimbabwe in preparation for a run-off election due on 27 June.

During recent weeks Mr Tsvangirai has been jetting around Africa and beyond, drumming up support.

But back in Zimbabwe he has been criticised from some quarters for abandoning his supporters in their hour of need.

Since the inconclusive election of 29 March, which resulted in a humiliating defeat for the governing Zanu-PF party and for President Robert Mugabe, opposition supporters have been the target of a systematic campaign of violence.

"People are asking 'Where is he? Where are our leaders?' They are missing in action", political analyst John Makumbe says.

Mr Tsvangirai, nicknamed "chamatama" because of his chubby cheeks, had been due to return last weekend but at the final minute cancelled the trip for security reasons.

The opposition Movement For Democratic Change, MDC, said it had learnt that the party's leader was the target of a military plot.

Morgan over consults and sometimes he becomes as good as the last person who has talked to him which derails the decision-making process Sydney Masamvu, International Crisis Group

Although some suggest this was perhaps a little far fetched and a convenient excuse for a change of plan, Mr Makumbe says that on the back of the ongoing violence, opposition supporters are all too aware of the need to put safety first.

"People understand that there are murderers throughout the country and the crown of all their work would be to put a bullet through Morgan Tsvangirai and if they did that they would not mind anybody in the MDC taking over but not Tsvangirai - the man who humiliated Robert Mugabe so much."

Shoring up credentials

As the run off election approaches, the playing field is far from level and there are plenty of people keen to cling on to their positions in Zimbabwe at all costs. So levering Mr Mugabe out of office will still be a mountainous task.

Key to Mr Tsvangirai's future is backing from African leaders especially amongst the regional grouping, Sadc, from whom Mr Mugabe has traditionally received strong support.

But that support is eroding as Zimbabwe's economic and political crisis deepens.

Mr Tsvangirai has spent more than a month outside Zimbabwe

"In the past Morgan Tsvangirai has been treated with a degree of scepticism by the nationalist political elite on the continent, including South Africa," Professor Adam Habib, deputy vice chancellor at the University of Johannesburg, says.

"This is in part because of the white farmer's support for the opposition and in part because of the support it has in London and New York," Prof Habib adds.

Over the past few weeks the Zimbabwean opposition leader has made inroads shoring up his credentials and gaining the support of at least some of the regional leaders.

Mr Tsvangirai has been praised in the past for showing courage and his popularity was boosted after he was badly beaten whilst in police custody in March 2007. But there are plenty who suggest his leadership style needs a makeover.

"He over listens and ends up failing to take the difficult decisions," says Sydney Masamvu of the International Crisis Group.

"Morgan over consults and sometimes he becomes as good as the last person who has talked to him which derails the decision making process," Mr Masamvu suggests.

This indecision was recently shown up when the MDC leader was asked about the future of Mr Mugabe.

Robert Mugabe's downfall has been falsely predicted for many years

"Judging from what is taking place now I think it would be very difficult to convince even the most forgiving to let him go scot free," Mr Tsvangirai told a news conference in Johannesburg last month.

He suggested a UN court should be set up for crimes committed in Zimbabwe.

But three weeks later there appeared to be a change of heart.

"He is the founding president of Zimbabwe and you can't take that away from him. The nation must move forward and I think any attempt at retribution may actually cause further destabilisation," Mr Tsvangirai told the BBC.

Some suggest he still needs to complete the transformation from being a trade union leader to political leader.

Obvious candidate

There is no guarantee that the run-off election will take place at all - few rules have been adhered to during this drawn out election.

There are growing calls for a negotiated settlement to the crisis at a time when Mr Tsvangirai has built up close links with the new ANC leadership in South Africa which is highly influential in the region.

Whatever the outcome, few doubt that the opposition leader is still on the rise.

"Morgan Tsvangirai is the obvious candidate to succeed Mugabe and the South African government is coming to terms with that," Prof Habib says.

"But the big question is, will he do it in partnership with someone else like (former Zanu-PF minister) Simba Makoni or with someone else or alone? What is clear is Tsvangirai will be a major figure in post-Mugabe Zimbabwe," he adds.

But nobody needs reminding that false dawns in Zimbabwe have been about as common as presidential birthdays and Mr Mugabe's downfall has been falsely predicted for many years.