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Tuesday, 8 February, 2000, 12:40 GMT
Industrial recovery gathers pace

Industry in Scotland is now recovering from the downturn Industry in Scotland is now recovering from the downturn


The recovery in the manufacturing sector is spreading across the country, according to Britain's leading trade association, the Confederation of British Industry.

The CBI's quarterly regional trends report showed total orders rising in nine of the 11 UK regions since last October, with only Northern Ireland seeing a fall and the East Midland seeing little change.



The upturn in manufacturing's fortunes is fragile
CBI's Sudhir Junankar
Total orders and output were expected to continue rising in the next four months in all regions except Northern Ireland.

The pick-up in demand has boosted manufacturers' confidence, especially in the Northwest, Yorkshire & Humberside, Scotland and the East Midlands.

But manufacturing exporters had a more mixed time, despite the improving global economy, as the high pound took its toll.

Export orders improved in the southern regions, the North East and Scotland but fell further in Northern Ireland, Yorkshire, the North West, East Midlands and Wales.

Companies are worried about falling profit margins, and there is no sign that they are about to take on more workers.

Interest rate issue

The good news on manufacturing, coupled with strong retail sales, is likely to tip the balance towards higher interest rates when the Bank of England meets later this week.

The Bank has already boosted rates three times in an attempt to cool the booming housing market.

Analysts expect another rise in base rates to 6.0% on Thursday, following recent rate increases in the United States and the eurozone.

But the CBI warned that further rises in interest rates could damage the recovery.

Sudhir Junankar, CBI associate director of economic analysis, said: "The upturn in manufacturing's fortunes is fragile and could be damaged if there was another interest rate rise this week."

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See also:
07 Feb 00 |  Business
UK retail sales up
18 Jan 00 |  Business
Manufacturing output surges
25 Jan 00 |  Business
UK business "fragile"
13 Jan 00 |  Business
Interest rates up 0.25%
28 Jan 00 |  Business
UK growth powers on

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